Applicability of Hubbert model to global mining industry: Interpretations and insights - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue PLOS Sustainability and Transformation Année : 2023

Applicability of Hubbert model to global mining industry: Interpretations and insights

Résumé

The Hubert’s model has been introduced in 1956 as a phenomenological description of the time evolution of US and world oil fields production. It has since then acquired a vast notoriety as a conceptual approach to resource depletion. It is often invoked nowadays in the context of the energy transition to question the limitations induced by the finitude of mineral stocks. Yet, its validity is often controversial despite its popularity. This paper offers a pedagogical introduction to the model, assesses its ability to describe the current evolution of 20 mining elements, and discusses the nature and robustness of conclusions drawn from Hubbert’s model considered either as a forecast or as a foresight tool. We also propose a novel way to represent graphically these conclusions as a “Hubbert’s map” which offers direct visualization of their main features.

Dates et versions

hal-04512709 , version 1 (20-03-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Lucas Riondet, Daniel Suchet, Olivier Vidal, José Halloy. Applicability of Hubbert model to global mining industry: Interpretations and insights. PLOS Sustainability and Transformation, 2023, 2 (4), pp.e0000047. ⟨10.1371/journal.pstr.0000047⟩. ⟨hal-04512709⟩
21 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More