Consumer sentiment and government confidence: Is there a stable causal relationship?
Résumé
Consumer confidence and perceived political confidence are known to play
independently a crucial role in the economic growth of a country. Using French monthly
economic and political data, we analyse the relationships between the president, the prime
minister and consumer confidence during cohabitation and non-cohabitation periods,
based on a SUR (seemingly unrelated regression) model. During cohabitation periods,
whenever the president’s confidence index increased the prime minister index decreased.
Further, confidence in the prime minister was useful for predicting consumer confidence.
During non-cohabitation periods, consumer confidence helps to forecast both the president’s
confidence and the prime minister’s confidence.