We study the water-level (WL) evolution in the Douala basin (DB), a sub-basin of the Wouri estuary, separated from the ocean by a natural constriction and influenced by tides and river inflow. Our objective is to assess whether floods in Douala city could result from water overflow from the Douala basin due to Wouri river floods. We first evaluate the constriction’s damping effect by analyzing tide amplitude variations from the ocean to the basin. A simplified model for basin WL variation is developed, incorporating a dissipation parameter (Г) that is evaluated using weak tidal amplitude modulation from the ocean to the basin over the dry season of 2023. Results in the DB reveal nondimensional choking-parameter (P) values of 12–19, indicating moderate dissipation. The basin's relatively small area results in a nondimensional river discharge parameter (S) of 0–12, indicating high river discharge regimes. Subsequently, the model is used to evaluate the mean and maximum WL, as well as tide amplitude variations of the DB, as functions of river flow and ocean tides. The mean WL increases, but the maximum tide amplitude decreases as river input increases. The maximum WL in the basin always exceeds the maximum amplitude of ocean tides but is only significantly higher when river input is above 1000 m3/s. In current conditions, where maximum observed river input is around 1800 m3/s, it is unlikely that flooding will extend beyond the basin borders into the city of Douala. For a moderate increase (20%) in future maximum river fluxes, it is also unlikely that the DB will overflow into Douala city. Only a drastic increase in mean ocean level and river fluxes (which are possible scenarios associated with climate change) could potentially lead to a significant rise in basin WL, resulting in severe flooding.