Evaluating criticality of strategic metals: Are the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and usual concentration thresholds still relevant? - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2024

Evaluating criticality of strategic metals: Are the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and usual concentration thresholds still relevant?

Valérie Mignon
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Pauline Bucciarelli
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Emmanuel Hache
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Résumé

This paper aims to evaluate the criticality of strategic metals by (i) investigating the validity of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for assessing the supply risk aspect of criticality and (ii) determining an appropriate threshold for using this indicator in the context of criticality studies. Relying on a large panel of 33 strategic metals over the 1995-2021 period, our findings show that the variation of HHI has more impact on metal prices at lower HHI levels and question the existence of a threshold that clearly distinguishes high-risk markets from less risky ones based on their concentration levels. Overall, we show that using the HHI as a supply risk indicator, especially in conjunction with a threshold, may result in underestimating risks in less concentrated markets.
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Dates et versions

hal-04452384 , version 1 (12-02-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04452384 , version 1

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Valérie Mignon, Pauline Bucciarelli, Emmanuel Hache. Evaluating criticality of strategic metals: Are the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and usual concentration thresholds still relevant?. 2024. ⟨hal-04452384⟩
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