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Article Dans Une Revue Entomologia Generalis Année : 2023

A new chapter of the Japanese beetle invasion saga: predicting suitability from long-invaded areas to inform surveillance strategies in Europe

Résumé

The Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica) has been listed as a priority pest in the EU since its introduction and gradual spread over the past decade. Our study presents a species distribution model that incorporates environmental factors relevant to the beetle's biology. Presence-only data from both native and long-invaded ranges (Japan, North America, and the Azores - Portugal) were used to train the model. These data were collected from both citizen-science platforms and standardised surveys. We adapted standard machine-learning techniques to account for the sampling bias inherent in opportunistic data. Suitability maps produced for the Northern Hemisphere show good agreement with actual beetle presence, especially in North America. They also show that Central Europe is generally suitable, while Northern European countries are at lower risk. A large cluster of high suitability is located in the currently invaded region, further confirming the robustness of our predictions, and extends eastwards towards the Balkans. Other clusters of moderate suitability are scattered across the central part of the continent, embedded in a matrix of low suitability. This picture highlights the importance of designing surveillance strategies considering both active insect dispersal and the possibility of hitchhiking to reach distant areas, and advocates for contingency planning at continental level.
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Dates et versions

hal-04423503 , version 1 (29-01-2024)

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Leyli Borner, Davide Martinetti, Sylvain Poggi. A new chapter of the Japanese beetle invasion saga: predicting suitability from long-invaded areas to inform surveillance strategies in Europe. Entomologia Generalis, 2023, Entomologia Generalis, 43 (5), pp.951-960. ⟨10.1127/entomologia/2023/2073⟩. ⟨hal-04423503⟩
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