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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2017

An integrated framework for condition-informed probabilistic risk assessment

Résumé

Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is based on techniques like Event Tree Analysis (ETA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which are considered static, i.e., the failure probabilities of the safety barriers do not take into account the system evolution in time, e.g., due to various degradation mechanisms, like fatigue, wear, corrosion, etc. On the other hand, condition-monitoring data are available in practice and can be used, possibly even for real-time updating. In this paper, we develop an integrated framework for condition-informed risk analysis. A conventional event tree model is used, in which some safety barriers are subject to degradation mechanisms and their failure probabilities are treated as time-dependent. Particle Filtering (PF) is used to update the failure probabilities of the safety barriers in real-time, based on the collected condition-monitoring data. The updated failure probabilities are, then, used in the event tree model. The developed framework also allows predicting the scenario probabilities in the future. To do this, the failure probabilities are updated and predicted by PF and, then integrated in the event tree. The developed framework is applied for condition-informed risk assessment of a high-level alarm equipment from literature.

Dates et versions

hal-04322265 , version 1 (04-12-2023)

Identifiants

Citer

Jinduo Xing, Zhiguo Zeng, Enrico Zio. An integrated framework for condition-informed probabilistic risk assessment. 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017, Jun 2017, Portorož, Slovenia. pp.2841-2847, ⟨10.1201/9781315210469⟩. ⟨hal-04322265⟩
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