Comparing the Performance of Three Models Incorporating Weather Data to Forecast Dengue Epidemics in Reunion Island, 2018–2019 - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Infectious Diseases Année : 2024

Comparing the Performance of Three Models Incorporating Weather Data to Forecast Dengue Epidemics in Reunion Island, 2018–2019

Henrik Salje
Xavier de Lamballerie

Résumé

We developed mathematical models to analyze a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic in Reunion Island in 2018–2019. Our models captured major drivers of uncertainty including the complex relationship between climate and DENV transmission, temperature trends, and underreporting. Early assessment correctly concluded that persistence of DENV transmission during the austral winter 2018 was likely and that the second epidemic wave would be larger than the first one. From November 2018, the detection probability was estimated at 10%–20% and, for this range of values, our projections were found to be remarkably accurate. Overall, we estimated that 8% and 18% of the population were infected during the first and second wave, respectively. Out of the 3 models considered, the best-fitting one was calibrated to laboratory entomological data, and accounted for temperature but not precipitation. This study showcases the contribution of modeling to strengthen risk assessments and planning of national and local authorities.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
jiad468.pdf (991.37 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Publication financée par une institution
Licence

Dates et versions

hal-04311515 , version 1 (10-01-2024)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Alessio Andronico, Luce Menudier, Henrik Salje, Muriel Vincent, Juliette Paireau, et al.. Comparing the Performance of Three Models Incorporating Weather Data to Forecast Dengue Epidemics in Reunion Island, 2018–2019. Journal of Infectious Diseases, In press, ⟨10.1093/infdis/jiad468⟩. ⟨hal-04311515⟩
44 Consultations
5 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Mastodon Facebook X LinkedIn More