Near-future projections in continuous agent-based models for crowd dynamics: mathematical structures in use and their implications
Se projeter dans le futur proche : structures mathématiques en usage dans les modèles d'agents continus pour la dynamique piétonne et implications
Résumé
This paper addresses the theoretical foundations of pedestrian models for crowd dynamics. While the topic gains momentum, current models differ widely in their mathematical structure, even if we only consider continuous agent-based models. To clarify their underpinning, we first lay mathematical foundations for the common hierarchical decomposition into strategic, tactical, and operational levels and underline the practical interest in preserving the continuity between the latter two levels by working with a floor field, rather than way-points. Turning to local navigation, we clarify how three archetypical approaches, namely, purely reactive models, anticipatory models based on the idea of times to collision, and game theory, differ in the way they extrapolate trajectories in the near future. We also insist on the oft-overlooked distinction between processes pertaining to decision-making and mechanical effects in dense settings. The implications of these differences are illustrated with a comparison of the numerical predictions of these models in the simple scenario of head-on collision avoidance between agents, by varying the walking speed, the reaction times, and the degree of courtesy of the agents, notably.
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