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Article Dans Une Revue Earth System Science Data Année : 2023

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Piers M Forster
  • Fonction : Auteur
Christopher J Smith
Tristram Walsh
William F Lamb
Robin Lamboll
  • Fonction : Auteur
Mathias Hauser
Aurélien Ribes
Debbie Rosen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Nathan Gillett
  • Fonction : Auteur
Matthew D Palmer
  • Fonction : Auteur
Joeri Rogelj
Karina von Schuckmann
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sonia I Seneviratne
Blair Trewin
  • Fonction : Auteur
Xuebin Zhang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Myles Allen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Robbie Andrew
Arlene Birt
  • Fonction : Auteur
Alex Borger
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tim Boyer
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jiddu A Broersma
  • Fonction : Auteur
Lijing Cheng
Frank Dentener
José M Gutiérrez
  • Fonction : Auteur
Johannes Gütschow
Bradley Hall
  • Fonction : Auteur
Masayoshi Ishii
  • Fonction : Auteur
Stuart Jenkins
Xin Lan
June-Yi Lee
Colin Morice
Christopher Kadow
John Kennedy
  • Fonction : Auteur
Rachel Killick
Jan C Minx
Vaishali Naik
  • Fonction : Auteur
Glen P Peters
Anna Pirani
Julia Pongratz
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Peter Thorne
Robert Rohde
Maisa Rojas Corradi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Dominik Schumacher
Russell Vose
  • Fonction : Auteur
Kirsten Zickfeld
Panmao Zhai
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, the Earth's energy imbalance, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open data, open science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8000192, Smith et al., 2023a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that human-induced warming reached 1.14 [0.9 to 1.4] ∘C averaged over the 2013–2022 decade and 1.26 [1.0 to 1.6] ∘C in 2022. Over the 2013–2022 period, human-induced warming has been increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2 ∘C per decade. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 54 ± 5.3 GtCO2e over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have slowed, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for human influence on climate.
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Dates et versions

hal-04199069 , version 1 (07-09-2023)

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Piers M Forster, Christopher J Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F Lamb, Robin Lamboll, et al.. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data, 2023, 15 (6), pp.2295 - 2327. ⟨10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023⟩. ⟨hal-04199069⟩
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