Can we use atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> measurements to verify emission trends reported by cities? Lessons from a 6-year atmospheric inversion over Paris - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Année : 2023

Can we use atmospheric CO2 measurements to verify emission trends reported by cities? Lessons from a 6-year atmospheric inversion over Paris

Mali Chariot
  • Fonction : Auteur
Simone Kotthaus
Martial Haeffelin
  • Fonction : Auteur
Olivier Sanchez
  • Fonction : Auteur
Olivier Perrussel
  • Fonction : Auteur
Hugo Anne Denier van der Gon
Stijn Nicolaas Camiel Dellaert

Résumé

Existing CO 2 emissions reported by city inventories usually lag in real-time by a year or more and are prone to large uncertainties. This study responds to the growing need for timely and precise estimation of urban CO 2 emissions to support present and future mitigation measures and policies. We focus on the Paris metropolitan area, the largest urban region in the European Union and the city with the densest atmospheric CO 2 observation network in Europe. We performed long-term atmospheric inversions to quantify the citywide CO 2 emissions, i.e., fossil fuel as well as biogenic sources and sinks, over 6 years (2016-2021) using a Bayesian inverse modeling system. Our inversion framework benefits from a novel near-real-time hourly fossil fuel CO 2 emission inventory (Origins.earth) at 1 km spatial resolution. In addition to the mid-afternoon observations, we attempt to assimilate morning CO 2 concentrations based on the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) transport model to simulate atmospheric boundary layer dynamics constrained by observed layer heights. Our results show a long-term decreasing trend of around 2 % ± 0.6 % per year in annual CO 2 emissions over the Paris region. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a 13 % ± 1 % reduction in annual fossil fuel CO 2 emissions in 2020 with respect to 2019. Subsequently, annual emissions increased by 5.2 % ± 14.2 % from 32.6 ± 2.2 Mt CO 2 in 2020 to 34.3 ± 2.3 Mt CO 2 in 2021. Based on a combination of up-to-date inventories, high-resolution atmospheric modeling and high-precision observations, our current capacity can deliver near-real-time CO 2 emission estimates at the city scale in less than a month, and the results agree within 10 % with independent estimates from multiple city-scale inventories.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
acp-23-8823-2023.pdf (3.91 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-04185202 , version 1 (22-08-2023)

Identifiants

Citer

Jinghui Lian, Thomas Lauvaux, Hervé Utard, Francois-Marie Breon, Grégoire Broquet, et al.. Can we use atmospheric CO2 measurements to verify emission trends reported by cities? Lessons from a 6-year atmospheric inversion over Paris. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2023, 23 (15), pp.8823 - 8835. ⟨10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023⟩. ⟨hal-04185202⟩
33 Consultations
15 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More