Hydro-climatic thresholds and economic growth reversals in developing countries: an empirical investigation
Résumé
In this paper, we exploit the Global Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index database to search for a nonlinear relationship between hydro-climatic conditions and economic growth on a sample of developing countries over the period 1980-2011. We evidence a nonlinear link between hydro-climatic conditions and economic growth only in developing agricultural-dependant countries, the impact of hydro-climatic variations being more easily absorbed in more diversified economies. Furthermore, threshold values reached by hydro-climatic conditions that drive changes in the pattern of economic growth are lower than to those corresponding to extreme weather conditions, suggesting a high sensitivity of economic growth in developing agricultural-dependent countries to small fluctuations in weather.
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