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Article Dans Une Revue Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Année : 2021

Computing the daily reproduction number of COVID-19 by inverting the renewal equation using a variational technique

Luis Alvarez
Miguel Colom
Jean-Michel Morel
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Résumé

Significance Based on a signal-processing approach, we propose a method to compute the reproduction number R t , the transmission potential of an epidemic over time. R t is estimated by minimizing a functional that enforces: 1) the ability to produce an incidence curve i t corrected of the weekly periodic bias produced by the “weekend effect,” obtained from R t through a renewal equation; and 2) the regularity of R t . A good agreement is found between our R t estimate and the one provided by the currently accepted method, EpiEstim, except that our method predicts R t several days closer to present. We provide the mathematical arguments for this shift.

Dates et versions

hal-04122172 , version 1 (09-06-2023)

Licence

Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification

Identifiants

Citer

Luis Alvarez, Miguel Colom, Jean-David Morel, Jean-Michel Morel. Computing the daily reproduction number of COVID-19 by inverting the renewal equation using a variational technique. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021, 118 (50), pp.173-197. ⟨10.1073/pnas.2105112118⟩. ⟨hal-04122172⟩
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