Uncertainty and complexity management in scenarios building as an innovation capability
Résumé
The aim of this study is to understand how scenarios are made in practice, and the effects they have on exploration processes. It builds on an increasing interest on future-making practices that complement current instrumentalist approaches to foresight by studying scenario reports published by RAND Europe over the last two decades. A document analysis and semi-structured interviews were conducted to establish how scenarios are actually made and brought to populate social worlds. We establish that scenarios frame uncertainty and complexity in particular ways, leading to specific effect that may influence how they can contribute to strategy development and innovation practices.