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Article Dans Une Revue Nature Communications Année : 2023

Clarifying the effect of biodiversity on productivity in natural ecosystems with longitudinal data and methods for causal inference

Laura Dee
Paul Ferraro
Christopher Severen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Kaitlin Kimmel
  • Fonction : Auteur
Elizabeth Borer
Jarrett Byrnes
Andrew Hector
Kendi Davies
  • Fonction : Auteur
Akira Mori
Melinda Smith
Peter Adler
Jonathan Bakker
Kate Brauman
Jane Cowles
Kimberly Komatsu
Johannes Knops
  • Fonction : Auteur
Rebecca Mcculley
Joslin Moore
John Morgan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Timothy Ohlert
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sally Power
Lauren Sullivan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Carly Stevens

Résumé

Causal effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions can be estimated using experimental or observational designs — designs that pose a tradeoff between drawing credible causal inferences from correlations and drawing generalizable inferences. Here, we develop a design that reduces this tradeoff and revisits the question of how plant species diversity affects productivity. Our design leverages longitudinal data from 43 grasslands in 11 countries and approaches borrowed from fields outside of ecology to draw causal inferences from observational data. Contrary to many prior studies, we estimate that increases in plot-level species richness caused productivity to decline: a 10% increase in richness decreased productivity by 2.4%, 95% CI [−4.1, −0.74]. This contradiction stems from two sources. First, prior observational studies incompletely control for confounding factors. Second, most experiments plant fewer rare and non-native species than exist in nature. Although increases in native, dominant species increased productivity, increases in rare and non-native species decreased productivity, making the average effect negative in our study. By reducing the tradeoff between experimental and observational designs, our study demonstrates how observational studies can complement prior ecological experiments and inform future ones.
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Dates et versions

hal-04091711 , version 1 (08-05-2023)

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Laura Dee, Paul Ferraro, Christopher Severen, Kaitlin Kimmel, Elizabeth Borer, et al.. Clarifying the effect of biodiversity on productivity in natural ecosystems with longitudinal data and methods for causal inference. Nature Communications, 2023, 14 (1), pp.2607. ⟨10.1038/s41467-023-37194-5⟩. ⟨hal-04091711⟩
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