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Article Dans Une Revue Economic Modelling Année : 2022

When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting

Résumé

The global temperatures over the period 1850–1900 are widely used by academia and policymaker as a pre-industrial baseline to assess global warming, but there remains a clear need for a statistical study. Using Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) and the Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) records, this study builds a stochastic disorder model to determine the pre-industrial periods for regional and global warming. We find that warming in HadCET emerged in 1866–1872 and the average HadCET has increased by 0.48 °C thereafter. Warming in BEST began in 1905–1909 and the average BEST has subsequently climbed by 0.8096 °C. The comparative analysis demonstrates that our results minimize the risk of false detection. These results will help to improve carbon budgeting and facilitate sustainable development planning.
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Dates et versions

hal-04077724 , version 1 (21-04-2023)

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Hachmi Ben Ameur, Xuyuan Han, Zhenya Liu, Jonathan Peillex. When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting. Economic Modelling, 2022, 116, pp.106005. ⟨10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106005⟩. ⟨hal-04077724⟩
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