Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Robert Vautard
(1)
,
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
(2)
,
Rémy Bonnet
(1)
,
Sihan Li
(3)
,
Yoann Robin
(4)
,
Sarah Kew
(2)
,
Sjoukje Philip
(2)
,
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
(4)
,
Brigitte Dubuisson
(4)
,
Nicolas Viovy
(5, 6)
,
Markus Reichstein
(7)
,
Friederike Otto
(8)
,
Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
(9)
1
IPSL (FR_636) -
Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace
2 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
3 SoGE - School of Geography and the Environment [Oxford]
4 DCSC - Direction de la climatologie et des services climatiques
5 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
6 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
7 Department of Biogeochemical Integration [Jena]
8 Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment
9 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
2 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
3 SoGE - School of Geography and the Environment [Oxford]
4 DCSC - Direction de la climatologie et des services climatiques
5 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
6 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
7 Department of Biogeochemical Integration [Jena]
8 Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment
9 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
Rémy Bonnet
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1112178
- ORCID : 0000-0002-9267-674X
Sihan Li
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1210553
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2479-8665
Sarah Kew
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1210549
- ORCID : 0000-0002-0418-9520
Brigitte Dubuisson
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1174891
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7074-3860
Nicolas Viovy
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 758722
- ORCID : 0000-0002-9197-6417
- IdRef : 159358914
Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 743512
- IdHAL : inaki-garcia-de-cortazar-atauri
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6941-9844
- IdRef : 126804362
Résumé
Abstract. In early April 2021 several days of harsh frost affected central Europe. This led to very severe damage in grapevine and fruit trees in France, in regions where young leaves had already unfolded due to unusually warm temperatures in the preceding month (March 2021). We analysed with observations and 172 climate model simulations how human-induced climate change affected this event over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that, without human-caused climate change, such temperatures in April or later in spring would have been even lower by 1.2 ∘C (0.75 to 1.7 ∘C). However, climate change also caused an earlier occurrence of bud burst that we characterized in this study by a growing degree day index value. This shift leaves young leaves exposed to more winter-like conditions with lower minimum temperatures and longer nights, an effect that overcompensates the warming effect. Extreme cold temperatures occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are now 2 ∘C colder (0.5 to 3.3 ∘C) than in preindustrial conditions, according to observations. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change with each of the five climate model ensembles used here simulating a cooling of growing-period annual temperature minima of 0.41 ∘C (0.22 to 0.60 ∘C) since preindustrial conditions. The 2021 growing-period frost event has become 50 % more likely (10 %–110 %). Models accurately simulate the observed warming in extreme lowest spring temperatures but underestimate the observed trends in growing-period frost intensities, a fact that yet remains to be explained. Model ensembles all simulate a further intensification of yearly minimum temperatures occurring in the growing period for future decades and a significant probability increase for such events of about 30 % (20 %–40 %) in a climate with global warming of 2 ∘C.
Domaines
Planète et Univers [physics]Format du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
|
Résumé |
en
Abstract. In early April 2021 several days of harsh frost affected central Europe. This led to very severe damage in grapevine and fruit trees in France, in regions where young leaves had already unfolded due to unusually warm temperatures in the preceding month (March 2021). We analysed with observations and 172 climate model simulations how human-induced climate change affected this event over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that, without human-caused climate change, such temperatures in April or later in spring would have been even lower by 1.2 ∘C (0.75 to 1.7 ∘C). However, climate change also caused an earlier occurrence of bud burst that we characterized in this study by a growing degree day index value. This shift leaves young leaves exposed to more winter-like conditions with lower minimum temperatures and longer nights, an effect that overcompensates the warming effect. Extreme cold temperatures occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are now 2 ∘C colder (0.5 to 3.3 ∘C) than in preindustrial conditions, according to observations. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change with each of the five climate model ensembles used here simulating a cooling of growing-period annual temperature minima of 0.41 ∘C (0.22 to 0.60 ∘C) since preindustrial conditions. The 2021 growing-period frost event has become 50 % more likely (10 %–110 %). Models accurately simulate the observed warming in extreme lowest spring temperatures but underestimate the observed trends in growing-period frost intensities, a fact that yet remains to be explained. Model ensembles all simulate a further intensification of yearly minimum temperatures occurring in the growing period for future decades and a significant probability increase for such events of about 30 % (20 %–40 %) in a climate with global warming of 2 ∘C.
|
Auteur(s) |
Robert Vautard
1
, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
2
, Rémy Bonnet
1
, Sihan Li
3
, Yoann Robin
4
, Sarah Kew
2
, Sjoukje Philip
2
, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
4
, Brigitte Dubuisson
4
, Nicolas Viovy
5, 6
, Markus Reichstein
7
, Friederike Otto
8
, Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
9
1
IPSL (FR_636) -
Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace
( 1005010 )
- 4 Place Jussieu 75252 PARIS CEDEX 05
- France
2
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
( 62436 )
- Pays-Bas
3
SoGE -
School of Geography and the Environment [Oxford]
( 225029 )
- South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY
- Royaume-Uni
4
DCSC -
Direction de la climatologie et des services climatiques
( 574162 )
- Direction de la climatologie et des services climatiques, Météo-France, 42 avenue Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01, France
- France
5
LSCE -
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
( 518 )
- Bât. 12,
avenue de la Terrasse,
F-91198 GIF-SUR-YVETTE CEDEX
- France
6
MOSAIC -
Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
( 1007951 )
- LSCE. CEA Paris-Saclay. Orme des merisiers. 91190 Saint-Aubin.
- France
7
Department of Biogeochemical Integration [Jena]
( 419775 )
- Hans-Knoell-Strasse 10, 07745 Jena
- Allemagne
8
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment
( 176609 )
- Kensington, Londres SW7 2BU
- Royaume-Uni
9
AGROCLIM -
Agroclim
( 1002029 )
- INRAE Domaine Saint-Paul - Site Agroparc 228 route de l'Aérodrome CS40509 84914 AVIGNON CEDEX 9
- France
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Date de publication |
2023
|
Volume |
23
|
Numéro |
3
|
Page/Identifiant |
1045-1058
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Domaine(s) |
|
DOI | 10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023 |
UT key WOS | 000978825300001 |
Origine :
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