Improving the accuracy of soil organic carbon models by initializing their pool partitioning using Rock-Eval thermal analysis
Résumé
Changes in the size of the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool can have major effects on climate regulation
as well as soil quality and fertility. Many factors influence the stability of SOC, leading to highly variable
residence times, ranging from hours to millennia. Accordingly, models of SOC dynamics used to predict
the evolution of SOC stocks separate SOC into pools of variable stability. Initial conditions, namely the
initial pool partitioning at the onset of simulations, have been shown to be important for the accuracy
projections of SOC change. However, methods currently used to estimate the size of SOC pools are
indirect, time-consuming, poorly validated and not standardized. Recently, Rock-Eval thermal analysis
has been proposed as a new method for direct determination of SOC stability. Based on this technique,
a machine learning model (PARTYSOC model) was developed, that allows the estimation of the size of
the centennially persistent SOC fraction in a soil sample. Here, using archive soil samples from nine
French long-term agricultural experimentation sites, we show that the PARTYSOC model optimally
partitions the pool distribution of a simple, well established model of SOC dynamics (AMG), accounting
for legacy effects of land use and soil management history. Then, we used the PARTYSOC predictions to
initialize the pool partitioning of the AMG model for the nine sites. We show that the CPSOC (RE model)
and optimized CS (ex-post AMG simulations) fractions are in good agreement (slope b=1.01, intercept
a=0.04 / spearman ρ=0.88). This observation serves as a successful independent validation of the RE
model. Finally, we show that the use of the RE based model improves the accuracy of the AMG model
compared to default initialization (RMSE decreased by 13.5%), especially for sites with complex land-
use history.
Domaines
Sciences de l'environnementOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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