Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Physical Review E Year : 2023

Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters

Abstract

Adding the notion of spatial locality to the susceptible-infected-recovered (or SIR) model, allows to capture local saturation of an epidemic. The resulting minimum model of an epidemic, consisting of five ordinary differential equations with constant model coefficients, reproduces slowly decaying periodic outbursts, as observed in the COVID-19 or Spanish flu epidemic. It is shown that if immunity decays, even slowly, the model yields a fully periodic dynamics.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
PhysRevE.107.L012201-2.pdf (592.55 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Publisher files allowed on an open archive

Dates and versions

hal-03964546 , version 1 (31-01-2023)

Identifiers

Cite

Louis Gostiaux, Wouter J T Bos, Jean-Pierre Bertoglio. Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters. Physical Review E , 2023, 107 (1), pp.L012201. ⟨10.1103/PhysRevE.107.L012201⟩. ⟨hal-03964546⟩
21 View
25 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More