Aviation and climate: the state-of-the-art
Résumé
As a human activity, the aviation sector is a contributor to climate change due the CO2 emissions and also non-CO2 effects which result from the interactions of the engine effluents with the atmosphere. The understanding and quantification of the impact of the aviation sector on climate is an intricate topic, whose evaluation largely depends on the scope considered. Furthermore, identifying the possible and efficient levers to mitigate such impact is of interest. This paper proposes a short review of the scientific literature regarding aviation and climate. Furthermore, it proposes an analysis of prospective decarbonisation scenarios for the sector in the context of the Paris Agreement. The results indicate that the ability of the aviation sector to reduce its CO2 emissions by 2050 thanks to technological levers (including progresses in
aerodynamics and propulsion) alone depends on the objective for the limitation of temperature increase by 2100. For an objective of +1.5 °C, if air traffic grows at the rate predicted by the aviation industry, it will consume a larger share of the carbon budget than its current share of CO2 emissions. Also, the results are compelling in regard of the low-carbon energy availability for the aviation sector.
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