Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning
Tomislav Pavlović
(1)
,
Flavio Azevedo
(2)
,
Koustav De
(3)
,
Julián Riaño-Moreno
(4)
,
Marina Maglić
(1)
,
Theofilos Gkinopoulos
(5)
,
Patricio Andreas Donnelly-Kehoe
(6)
,
César Payán-Gómez
(7)
,
Guanxiong Huang
(8)
,
Jaroslaw Kantorowicz
(9)
,
Michèle Birtel
(10)
,
Philipp Schönegger
(11)
,
Valerio Capraro
(12)
,
Hernando Santamaría-García
(13)
,
Meltem Yucel
(14)
,
Agustin Ibanez
(15, 16, 17)
,
Steve Rathje
(2)
,
Erik Wetter
(18)
,
Dragan Stanojević
(19)
,
Jan-Willem van Prooijen
(20)
,
Eugenia Hesse
(21)
,
Christian T. Elbaek
(22)
,
Renata Franc
(1)
,
Zoran Pavlović
(19)
,
Panagiotis Mitkidis
(22)
,
Aleksandra Cichocka
(23)
,
Michele Gelfand
(24)
,
Mark Alfano
(25)
,
Robert Ross
(25)
,
Hallgeir Sjåstad
(26)
,
John B. Nezlek
(27)
,
Aleksandra Cislak
(27)
,
Patricia Lockwood
(28, 29)
,
Koen Abts
(30)
,
Elena Agadullina
(31)
,
David M. Amodio
(32)
,
Matthew A. J. Apps
(28)
,
John Jamir Benzon Aruta
(33)
,
Sahba Besharati
(34)
,
Alexander Bor
(22)
,
Becky Choma
(35)
,
William Cunningham
(35)
,
Waqas Ejaz
(36)
,
Harry Farmer
(10)
,
Andrej Findor
(37)
,
Biljana Gjoneska
(38)
,
Estrella Gualda
(39)
,
Toan L. D. Huynh
(40)
,
Mostak Ahamed Imran
(41)
,
Jacob Israelashvili
(42)
,
Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko
(43)
,
André Krouwel
(20)
,
Yordan Kutiyski
(44)
,
Michael Laakasuo
(45)
,
Claus Lamm
(46)
,
Jonathan Levy
(47, 48)
,
Caroline Leygue
(49)
,
Ming-Jen Lin
(50)
,
Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor
(51)
,
Antoine Marie
(22)
,
Lewend Mayiwar
(52)
,
Honorata Mazepus
(9)
,
Cillian McHugh
(53)
,
Andreas Olsson
(54)
,
Tobias Otterbring
(55)
,
Dominic Packer
(56)
,
Jussi Palomäki
(45)
,
Anat Perry
(42)
,
Michael Bang Petersen
(22)
,
Arathy Puthillam
(57)
,
Tobias Rothmund
(58)
,
Petra C. Schmid
(59)
,
David Stadelmann
(60)
,
Augustin Stoica
(61)
,
Drozdstoy Stoyanov
(62)
,
Kristina Stoyanova
(62)
,
Shruti Tewari
(63)
,
Bojan Todosijević
(64)
,
Benno Torgler
(65)
,
Manos Tsakiris
(66, 67)
,
Hans H. Tung
(50)
,
Radu Gabriel Umbreș
(68)
,
Edmunds Vanags
(69)
,
Madalina Vlasceanu
(70)
,
Andrew J. Vonasch
(71)
,
Yucheng Zhang
(72)
,
Mohcine Abad
(73)
,
Eli Adler
(42, 48)
,
Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri
(73)
,
Benedict Antazo
,
F. Ceren Ay
(74)
,
Mouhamadou El Hady Ba
(75)
,
Sergio Barbosa
(6)
,
Brock Bastian
(76)
,
Anton Berg
(45)
,
Michał Białek
(77)
,
Ennio Bilancini
(78)
,
Natalia Bogatyreva
,
Leonardo Boncinelli
(79)
,
Jonathan E. Booth
(80)
,
Sylvie Borau
(81)
,
Ondrej Buchel
(82)
,
Chrissie Ferreira de Carvalho
(83)
,
Tatiana Celadin
(84)
,
Chiara Cerami
,
Hom Nath Chalise
(85)
,
Xiaojun Cheng
(86)
,
Luca Cian
(87)
,
Kate Cockcroft
(34)
,
Jane Conway
(88)
,
Mateo A. Córdoba-Delgado
(13)
,
Chiara Crespi
,
Marie Crouzevialle
(59)
,
Jo Cutler
(28, 29)
,
Marzena Cypryańska
,
Justyna Dabrowska
,
Victoria Davis
(35)
,
John Paul Minda
(89)
,
Pamala N. Dayley
(16)
,
Sylvain Delouvée
(90)
,
Ognjan Denkovski
(32)
,
Guillaume Dezecache
(91)
,
Nathan Dhaliwal
(92)
,
Alelie Diato
,
Roberto Di Paolo
,
Uwe Dulleck
(93)
,
Jānis Ekmanis
(69)
,
Tom W. Etienne
(94)
,
Hapsa Hossain Farhana
,
Fahima Farkhari
(95, 58)
,
Kristijan Fidanovski
(29)
,
Terry Flew
(96)
,
Shona Fraser
(34)
,
Raymond Boadi Frempong
(60)
,
Jonathan Fugelsang
(97)
,
Jessica Gale
(71)
,
E Begoña García-Navarro
(39)
,
Prasad Garladinne
(63)
,
Kurt Gray
(98)
,
Siobhán M. Griffin
(53)
,
Bjarki Gronfeldt
(23)
,
June Gruber
(99)
,
Eran Halperin
(42)
,
Volo Herzon
(45)
,
Matej Hruška
(37)
,
Matthias F. C. Hudecek
(100)
,
Ozan Isler
(93)
,
Simon Jangard
(54)
,
Frederik Jørgensen
(22)
,
Oleksandra Keudel
(101)
,
Lina Koppel
(102)
,
Mika Koverola
(45)
,
Anton Kunnari
(45)
,
Josh Leota
(103)
,
Eva Lermer
(104, 105)
,
Chunyun Li
(106)
,
Chiara Longoni
(107)
,
Darragh McCashin
(108)
,
Igor Mikloušić
(1)
,
Juliana Molina-Paredes
(13)
,
César Monroy-Fonseca
,
Elena Morales-Marente
(39)
,
David Moreau
(109)
,
Rafał Muda
(110)
,
Annalisa Myer
(111)
,
Kyle Nash
(112)
,
Jonas P. Nitschke
(46)
,
Matthew S. Nurse
(113)
,
Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello
(35)
,
Maria Soledad Palacios-Galvez
(114, 115)
,
Jussi Palomäki
(45)
,
Yafeng Pan
(116)
,
Zsófia Papp
,
Philip Pärnamets
(54)
,
Mariola Paruzel-Czachura
(114, 115)
,
Silva Perander
(45)
,
Michael Pitman
(34)
,
Ali Raza
(99)
,
Gabriel Gaudencio Rêgo
(117)
,
Claire Robertson
(118)
,
Iván Rodríguez-Pascual
(39)
,
Teemu Saikkonen
(119)
,
Octavio Salvador-Ginez
(49)
,
Waldir M. Sampaio
(117)
,
Gaia Chiara Santi
,
David Schultner
(32)
,
Enid Schutte
(34)
,
Andy Scott
(120)
,
Ahmed Skali
(121)
,
Anna Stefaniak
(122)
,
Anni Sternisko
(118)
,
Brent Strickland
(123, 124)
,
Jeffrey Thomas
(106)
,
Gustav Tinghög
,
Iris J. Traast
(32)
,
Raffaele Tucciarelli
(125)
,
Michael Tyrala
(8)
,
Nick D. Ungson
(126)
,
Mete Sefa Uysal
(58)
,
Dirk van Rooy
(127)
,
Daniel Västfjäll
(102)
,
Joana K. Vieira
(54, 128)
,
Christian von Sikorski
(129)
,
Alexander C. Walker
(34)
,
Jennifer Watermeyer
(34)
,
Robin Willardt
(59)
,
Michael J. A. Wohl
(122)
,
Adrian Dominik Wójcik
(130)
,
Kaidi Wu
(131)
,
Yuki Yamada
(132)
,
Onurcan Yilmaz
(133)
,
Kumar Yogeeswaran
(71)
,
Carolin-Theresa Ziemer
(58)
,
Rolf A. Zwaan
(43)
,
Paulo Sergio Boggio
(117)
,
Ashley Whillans
(134)
,
Paul A. M. van Lange
(20)
,
Rajib Prasad
(135)
,
Michal Onderco
(43)
,
Cathal O'Madagain
(73)
,
Tarik Nesh-Nash
,
Oscar Moreda Laguna
(44)
,
Emily Kubin
(129)
,
Mert Gümren
(136)
,
Ali Fenwick
(137)
,
Arhan S. Ertan
(138)
,
Michael J. Bernstein
(139)
,
Hanane Amara
(136)
,
Jay Joseph van Bavel
(70)
1
Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar
2 CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]
3 UK - University of Kentucky
4 Universidad El Bosque [Bogota]
5 UOC - University of Crete [Heraklion]
6 Universidad del Rosario [Bogota]
7 UNAL - Universidad Nacional de Colombia [Bogotà]
8 CUHK - City University of Hong Kong [Hong Kong]
9 Universiteit Leiden = Leiden University
10 University of Greenwich
11 University of St Andrews [Scotland]
12 Middlesex University [London]
13 Pontifical Xavierian University
14 Duke University [Durham]
15 Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez [Santiago]
16 UC - University of California
17 Trinity College Dublin
18 SSE - Stockholm School of Economics
19 University of Belgrade [Belgrade]
20 VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
21 UMSA - Universidad Mayor de San Andrés
22 Aarhus University [Aarhus]
23 University of Kent [Canterbury]
24 Stanford University
25 Macquarie University
26 Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
27 SWPS - SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities
28 University of Birmingham [Birmingham]
29 University of Oxford
30 KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
31 HSE - Vysšaja škola èkonomiki = National Research University Higher School of Economics [Moscow]
32 UvA - University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] = Universiteit van Amsterdam
33 Sunway University [Malaysia]
34 WITS - University of the Witwatersrand [Johannesburg]
35 University of Toronto
36 NUST - National University of Sciences and Technology [Islamabad]
37 Comenius University in Bratislava
38 MASA - Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts [Skopje, North Macedonia]
39 Universidad de Huelva
40 University of Southampton
41 BRAC University
42 HUJ - The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
43 Erasmus University Rotterdam
44 Kieskompas
45 Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki
46 Universität Wien = University of Vienna
47 RUNI - Reichman University [Herzliya]
48 Aalto University
49 UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico
50 NTU - National Taiwan University [Taiwan]
51 HEMS School
52 BI Norwegian Business School [Oslo]
53 UL - University of Limerick
54 Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm]
55 UIA - University of Agder
56 Lehigh University [Bethlehem]
57 Monk Prayogshala
58 Friedrich-Schiller-Universität = Friedrich Schiller University Jena [Jena, Germany]
59 ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]
60 Universität Bayreuth [Deutschland] = University of Bayreuth [Germany] = Université de Bayreuth [Allemagne]
61 SNSPA - National School of Political and Administrative Studies
62 Plovdiv University "Paisii Hilendarski"
63 IMM Indore - Indian Institute of Management Indore
64 Institute of Social Sciences Belgrade
65 QUT - Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane]
66 RHUL - Royal Holloway [University of London]
67 University of London [London]
68 National University of Political Studies and Public Administration
69 LU - University of Latvia
70 NYU - New York University [New York]
71 University of Canterbury [Christchurch]
72 Hebei University of Technology [Tianjin]
73 UM6P - Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique = Mohammed VI Polytechnic University [Ben Guerir]
74 AnsuR Technologies [Fornebu]
75 UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal]
76 Victoria University [Melbourne]
77 UWr - University of Wrocław [Poland]
78 IMT Institute for Advanced Studies [Lucca]
79 UniFI - Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence
80 LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science
81 TBS Education
82 SAS - Slovak Academy of Science [Bratislava]
83 UDESC - Santa Catarina State University
84 UNIBO - Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna = University of Bologna
85 Tribhuvan University
86 Shenzhen Univerisity [Shenzhen]
87 University of Virginia
88 UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole
89 UWO - University of Western Ontario
90 UR2 - Université de Rennes 2
91 LAPSCO - Laboratoire de Psychologie Sociale et Cognitive
92 UBC - University of British Columbia
93 UQ [All campuses : Brisbane, Dutton Park Gatton, Herston, St Lucia and other locations] - The University of Queensland
94 Penn State - Pennsylvania State University
95 WWU - Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster = University of Münster
96 The University of Sydney
97 University of Waterloo [Waterloo]
98 UNC - University of North Carolina [Chapel Hill]
99 University of Colorado [Boulder]
100 University of Regensburg
101 KSE - Kyiv School of economic
102 LIU - Linköping University
103 Monash University [Clayton]
104 Ansbach University of Applied Sciences
105 LMU - Ludwig Maximilian University [Munich] = Ludwig Maximilians Universität München
106 LSE - Department of Management - London School of Economics and Political Science
107 QSB - Questrom School of Business
108 DCU - Dublin City University [Dublin]
109 University of Auckland [Auckland]
110 UMCS - Maria Curie-Sklodowska University
111 CUNY - City University of New York [New York]
112 University of Alberta
113 ANU - Australian National University
114 University of Silesia in Katowice
115 UCM - Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid]
116 Zhejiang University [Hangzhou, China]
117 UPM - Mackenzie Presbyterian University [São Paulo]
118 NYU Department of Psychology [New-York University]
119 University of Turku
120 CCNY - City College of New York [CUNY]
121 University of Groningen [Groningen]
122 Carleton University
123 DEC - Département d'Etudes Cognitives - ENS Paris
124 FGSES - Faculté de Gouvernance, Sciences Économiques et Sociales [UM6P]
125 UCL - University College of London [London]
126 Susquehanna University
127 UA - University of Antwerp
128 University of Exeter
129 University of Koblenz-Landau
130 Nicolaus Copernicus University [Toruń]
131 UC San Diego - University of California [San Diego]
132 Kyushu University
133 KHAS - Kadir Has University
134 Harvard Business School
135 Vidyasagar College For Women
136 Koç University
137 Hult International Business School
138 Boǧaziçi üniversitesi = Boğaziçi University [Istanbul]
139 Penn State Abington
2 CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]
3 UK - University of Kentucky
4 Universidad El Bosque [Bogota]
5 UOC - University of Crete [Heraklion]
6 Universidad del Rosario [Bogota]
7 UNAL - Universidad Nacional de Colombia [Bogotà]
8 CUHK - City University of Hong Kong [Hong Kong]
9 Universiteit Leiden = Leiden University
10 University of Greenwich
11 University of St Andrews [Scotland]
12 Middlesex University [London]
13 Pontifical Xavierian University
14 Duke University [Durham]
15 Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez [Santiago]
16 UC - University of California
17 Trinity College Dublin
18 SSE - Stockholm School of Economics
19 University of Belgrade [Belgrade]
20 VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
21 UMSA - Universidad Mayor de San Andrés
22 Aarhus University [Aarhus]
23 University of Kent [Canterbury]
24 Stanford University
25 Macquarie University
26 Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
27 SWPS - SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities
28 University of Birmingham [Birmingham]
29 University of Oxford
30 KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
31 HSE - Vysšaja škola èkonomiki = National Research University Higher School of Economics [Moscow]
32 UvA - University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] = Universiteit van Amsterdam
33 Sunway University [Malaysia]
34 WITS - University of the Witwatersrand [Johannesburg]
35 University of Toronto
36 NUST - National University of Sciences and Technology [Islamabad]
37 Comenius University in Bratislava
38 MASA - Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts [Skopje, North Macedonia]
39 Universidad de Huelva
40 University of Southampton
41 BRAC University
42 HUJ - The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
43 Erasmus University Rotterdam
44 Kieskompas
45 Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki
46 Universität Wien = University of Vienna
47 RUNI - Reichman University [Herzliya]
48 Aalto University
49 UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico
50 NTU - National Taiwan University [Taiwan]
51 HEMS School
52 BI Norwegian Business School [Oslo]
53 UL - University of Limerick
54 Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm]
55 UIA - University of Agder
56 Lehigh University [Bethlehem]
57 Monk Prayogshala
58 Friedrich-Schiller-Universität = Friedrich Schiller University Jena [Jena, Germany]
59 ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]
60 Universität Bayreuth [Deutschland] = University of Bayreuth [Germany] = Université de Bayreuth [Allemagne]
61 SNSPA - National School of Political and Administrative Studies
62 Plovdiv University "Paisii Hilendarski"
63 IMM Indore - Indian Institute of Management Indore
64 Institute of Social Sciences Belgrade
65 QUT - Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane]
66 RHUL - Royal Holloway [University of London]
67 University of London [London]
68 National University of Political Studies and Public Administration
69 LU - University of Latvia
70 NYU - New York University [New York]
71 University of Canterbury [Christchurch]
72 Hebei University of Technology [Tianjin]
73 UM6P - Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique = Mohammed VI Polytechnic University [Ben Guerir]
74 AnsuR Technologies [Fornebu]
75 UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal]
76 Victoria University [Melbourne]
77 UWr - University of Wrocław [Poland]
78 IMT Institute for Advanced Studies [Lucca]
79 UniFI - Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence
80 LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science
81 TBS Education
82 SAS - Slovak Academy of Science [Bratislava]
83 UDESC - Santa Catarina State University
84 UNIBO - Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna = University of Bologna
85 Tribhuvan University
86 Shenzhen Univerisity [Shenzhen]
87 University of Virginia
88 UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole
89 UWO - University of Western Ontario
90 UR2 - Université de Rennes 2
91 LAPSCO - Laboratoire de Psychologie Sociale et Cognitive
92 UBC - University of British Columbia
93 UQ [All campuses : Brisbane, Dutton Park Gatton, Herston, St Lucia and other locations] - The University of Queensland
94 Penn State - Pennsylvania State University
95 WWU - Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster = University of Münster
96 The University of Sydney
97 University of Waterloo [Waterloo]
98 UNC - University of North Carolina [Chapel Hill]
99 University of Colorado [Boulder]
100 University of Regensburg
101 KSE - Kyiv School of economic
102 LIU - Linköping University
103 Monash University [Clayton]
104 Ansbach University of Applied Sciences
105 LMU - Ludwig Maximilian University [Munich] = Ludwig Maximilians Universität München
106 LSE - Department of Management - London School of Economics and Political Science
107 QSB - Questrom School of Business
108 DCU - Dublin City University [Dublin]
109 University of Auckland [Auckland]
110 UMCS - Maria Curie-Sklodowska University
111 CUNY - City University of New York [New York]
112 University of Alberta
113 ANU - Australian National University
114 University of Silesia in Katowice
115 UCM - Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid]
116 Zhejiang University [Hangzhou, China]
117 UPM - Mackenzie Presbyterian University [São Paulo]
118 NYU Department of Psychology [New-York University]
119 University of Turku
120 CCNY - City College of New York [CUNY]
121 University of Groningen [Groningen]
122 Carleton University
123 DEC - Département d'Etudes Cognitives - ENS Paris
124 FGSES - Faculté de Gouvernance, Sciences Économiques et Sociales [UM6P]
125 UCL - University College of London [London]
126 Susquehanna University
127 UA - University of Antwerp
128 University of Exeter
129 University of Koblenz-Landau
130 Nicolaus Copernicus University [Toruń]
131 UC San Diego - University of California [San Diego]
132 Kyushu University
133 KHAS - Kadir Has University
134 Harvard Business School
135 Vidyasagar College For Women
136 Koç University
137 Hult International Business School
138 Boǧaziçi üniversitesi = Boğaziçi University [Istanbul]
139 Penn State Abington
Manos Tsakiris
- Fonction : Auteur
Benedict Antazo
- Fonction : Auteur
Natalia Bogatyreva
- Fonction : Auteur
Chiara Cerami
- Fonction : Auteur
Chiara Crespi
- Fonction : Auteur
Marzena Cypryańska
- Fonction : Auteur
Justyna Dabrowska
- Fonction : Auteur
Alelie Diato
- Fonction : Auteur
Roberto Di Paolo
- Fonction : Auteur
Hapsa Hossain Farhana
- Fonction : Auteur
Raymond Boadi Frempong
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1417571
- IdHAL : raymond-frempong
César Monroy-Fonseca
- Fonction : Auteur
Zsófia Papp
- Fonction : Auteur
Gaia Chiara Santi
- Fonction : Auteur
Gustav Tinghög
- Fonction : Auteur
Tarik Nesh-Nash
- Fonction : Auteur
Résumé
At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multi-national data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution—individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar was found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-negligible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic.
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