Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)
Doug M. Smith
(1)
,
Nathan P. Gillett
(2)
,
Isla R. Simpson
(3)
,
Panos J. Athanasiadis
(4)
,
Johanna Baehr
(5)
,
Ingo Bethke
(6)
,
Tarkan A. Bilge
(6)
,
Rémy Bonnet
(7)
,
Olivier Boucher
(7)
,
Kirsten L. Findell
(8)
,
Guillaume Gastineau
(9)
,
Silvio Gualdi
(4)
,
Leon Hermanson
(1)
,
L. Ruby Leung
(10)
,
Juliette Mignot
(9)
,
Wolfgang A. Müller
(11)
,
Scott Osprey
(12, 13)
,
Odd Helge Otterå
(6)
,
Geeta G. Persad
(14)
,
Adam A. Scaife
(1, 15)
,
Gavin Schmidt
(16)
,
Hideo Shiogama
(17)
,
Rowan T. Sutton
(12, 18)
,
Didier Swingedouw
(19)
,
Shuting Yang
(20)
,
Tianjun Zhou
(21, 22)
,
Tilo Ziehn
(23)
1
MOHC -
Met Office Hadley Centre
2 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
3 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
4 CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
5 CEN - Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability
6 GFI / BiU - Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
7 IPSL (FR_636) - Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace
8 GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
9 VARCLIM - Océan et variabilité du climat
10 PNNL - Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
11 MPI-M - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
12 NCAS - National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
13 University of Oxford
14 Department of Geological Sciences [Austin]
15 EMPS - College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter]
16 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
17 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
18 Department of Meteorology [Reading]
19 EPOC - Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques
20 DMI - Danish Meteorological Institute
21 LASG - State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
22 UCAS - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]
23 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
2 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
3 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
4 CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
5 CEN - Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability
6 GFI / BiU - Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
7 IPSL (FR_636) - Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace
8 GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
9 VARCLIM - Océan et variabilité du climat
10 PNNL - Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
11 MPI-M - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
12 NCAS - National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
13 University of Oxford
14 Department of Geological Sciences [Austin]
15 EMPS - College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter]
16 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
17 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
18 Department of Meteorology [Reading]
19 EPOC - Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques
20 DMI - Danish Meteorological Institute
21 LASG - State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
22 UCAS - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]
23 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Guillaume Gastineau
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1159470
- IdHAL : guillaume-gastineau
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5478-1119
Juliette Mignot
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 841638
- IdHAL : juliette-mignot
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4894-898X
- IdRef : 089429362
Résumé
Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.
Format du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)
|
Résumé |
en
Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.
|
Auteur(s) |
Doug M. Smith
1
, Nathan P. Gillett
2
, Isla R. Simpson
3
, Panos J. Athanasiadis
4
, Johanna Baehr
5
, Ingo Bethke
6
, Tarkan A. Bilge
6
, Rémy Bonnet
7
, Olivier Boucher
7
, Kirsten L. Findell
8
, Guillaume Gastineau
9
, Silvio Gualdi
4
, Leon Hermanson
1
, L. Ruby Leung
10
, Juliette Mignot
9
, Wolfgang A. Müller
11
, Scott Osprey
12, 13
, Odd Helge Otterå
6
, Geeta G. Persad
14
, Adam A. Scaife
1, 15
, Gavin Schmidt
16
, Hideo Shiogama
17
, Rowan T. Sutton
12, 18
, Didier Swingedouw
19
, Shuting Yang
20
, Tianjun Zhou
21, 22
, Tilo Ziehn
23
1
MOHC -
Met Office Hadley Centre
( 126787 )
- FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB
- Royaume-Uni
2
CCCma -
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
( 484698 )
- University of Victoria, Victoria
- Canada
3
NCAR -
National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
( 93601 )
- 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO 80301
- États-Unis
4
CMCC -
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
( 93618 )
- via C. Berti Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna, Italy
- Italie
5
CEN -
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability
( 414697 )
- Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg
- Allemagne
6
GFI / BiU -
Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
( 410575 )
- Universitetet i Bergen, Geofysisk institutt, Allégaten 70, 5020 Bergen
- Norvège
7
IPSL (FR_636) -
Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace
( 1005010 )
- 4 Place Jussieu 75252 PARIS CEDEX 05
- France
8
GFDL -
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
( 27369 )
- Princeton University, Forrestal Campus, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540-6649
- États-Unis
9
VARCLIM -
Océan et variabilité du climat
( 541822 )
- France
10
PNNL -
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
( 49471 )
- Richland, WA 99352
- États-Unis
11
MPI-M -
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
( 481122 )
- 20146 Hamburg
- Allemagne
12
NCAS -
National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
( 67710 )
- School of Earth and Environment , University of Leeds , Leeds LS2 9JT
- Royaume-Uni
13
University of Oxford
( 302612 )
- Wellington Square, Oxford OX1 2JD
- Royaume-Uni
14
Department of Geological Sciences [Austin]
( 12965 )
- University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX 78712-1722, Texas
- États-Unis
15
EMPS -
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter]
( 200465 )
- Streatham Campus, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, UK EX4 4QF
- Royaume-Uni
16
GISS -
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
( 251994 )
- 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025
- États-Unis
17
NIES -
National Institute for Environmental Studies
( 98417 )
- Tsukuba, Ibaraki
- Japon
18
Department of Meteorology [Reading]
( 102113 )
- Reading, RG6 6BB
- Royaume-Uni
19
EPOC -
Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques
( 778 )
- Avenue des Facultés - 33405 TALENCE CEDEX
- France
20
DMI -
Danish Meteorological Institute
( 90268 )
- Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen
- Danemark
21
LASG -
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
( 1108210 )
- P.O. Box 9804
Beijing 100029
- Chine
22
UCAS -
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]
( 469160 )
- No.19(A) Yuquan Road, Shijingshan District, Beijing, P.R.China 100049
- Chine
23
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
( 415926 )
- Hobart 7001, Tasmania
- Australie
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Licence |
Paternité
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2022-09-16
|
Volume |
4
|
Domaine(s) |
|
DOI | 10.3389/fclim.2022.955414 |
Base Horizon | fdi:010088277 |
UT key WOS | 001019276100001 |
Origine :
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