Modelling the spread of bovine brucellosis in Paraguay through the trade of cows
Résumé
Brucellosis is a zoonosis caused by bacteria of the genus Brucella. Bovine brucellosis (BB), caused mainly by Brucella abortus, is associated with abortions, reduced fertility and decreased milk production, resulting in significant economic losses in the cattle industry. In Paraguay, whose main economic activity is cattle raising, brucellosis is an endemic disease and one of the main diseases of cattle. Several control plans were proposed in the past, but their implementation has not been widespread and the disease is still present in a significant part of the farms. The general objective of this work was to develop a brucellosis transmission model to test different disease control scenarios. Specifically, a stochastic compartmental model was developed that takes into account both intra- and inter-farm transmission. The spatialization of the model allowed considering inter-farm transmission at the local level, as well as transmission through livestock movements. Two routes of BB transmission were considered: transmission by direct or indirect contact between animals from different farms at pasture and movement of animals from infected to susceptible locations.
The simulations of the calibrated model have made it possible to establish the current risk map for the appearance and spread of brucellosis in Paraguay. In the future we will use the model to simulate, different disease control scenarios, and provide recommendations to decision makers.
Domaines
Santé publique et épidémiologie
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)