The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Nature Année : 2022

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Heidi Kreibich (1) , Anne van Loon (2) , Kai Schröter (1, 3) , Philip J. Ward (2) , Maurizio Mazzoleni (2) , Nivedita Sairam (1) , Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu (4) , Svetlana Agafonova (5) , Amir Aghakouchak (6) , Hafzullah Aksoy (7) , Camila Alvarez-Garreton (8, 9) , Blanca Aznar (10) , Laila Balkhi (11) , Marlies H. Barendrecht (2) , Sylvain Biancamaria (12) , Liduin Bos-Burgering (13) , Chris Bradley (14) , Yus Budiyono (15) , Wouter Buytaert (16) , Lucinda Capewell (14) , Hayley Carlson (11) , Yonca Cavus (7, 17, 18) , Anaïs Couasnon (2) , Gemma Coxon (19, 20) , Ioannis Daliakopoulos (21) , Marleen C. de Ruiter (2) , Claire Delus (22) , Mathilde Erfurt (18) , Giuseppe Esposito (23) , Didier François (22) , Frédéric Frappart (24) , Jim Freer (19, 20, 11) , Natalia Frolova (5) , Animesh K. Gain (25, 26) , Manolis Grillakis (27) , Jordi Oriol Grima (10) , Diego A. Guzmán (28) , Laurie S. Huning (6, 29) , Monica Ionita (30, 31, 32) , Maxim Kharlamov (5, 33) , Dao Nguyen Khoi (34) , Natalie Kieboom (35) , Maria Kireeva (5) , Aristeidis Koutroulis (36) , Waldo Lavado-Casimiro (37) , Hong-Yi Li (4) , María Carmen Llasat (38) , David Macdonald (39) , Johanna Mård (40, 41) , Hannah Mathew-Richards (35) , Andrew Mckenzie (39) , Alfonso Mejia (42) , Eduardo Mario Mendiondo (43) , Marjolein Mens (44) , Shifteh Mobini (45, 46) , Guilherme Samprogna Mohor (47) , Viorica Nagavciuc (30, 32) , Thanh Ngo-Duc (48) , Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh (49) , Pham Thi Thao Nhi (50) , Olga Petrucci (23) , Hong Quan Nguyen (51) , Pere Quintana-Seguí (52) , Saman Razavi (11) , Elena Ridolfi (53) , Jannik Riegel (54) , Md Shibly Sadik (55) , Elisa Savelli (40, 41) , Alexey Sazonov (5, 33) , Sanjib Sharma (42) , Johanna Sörensen (46) , Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza (43) , Kerstin Stahl (18) , Max Steinhausen (1) , Michael Stoelzle (18) , Wiwiana Szalińska (56) , Qiuhong Tang (57) , Fuqiang Tian (58) , Tamara Tokarczyk (56) , Carolina Tovar (59) , Thi van Thu Tran (49) , Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort (60) , Michelle T. H. van Vliet (61) , Sergiy Vorogushyn (1) , Thorsten Wagener (20, 62, 19) , Yueling Wang (57) , Doris E. Wendt (19) , Elliot Wickham (63) , Long Yang (64) , Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini (9, 8) , Günter Blöschl (65) , Giuliano Di Baldassarre (66, 40, 41)
1 GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
2 VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
3 Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig]
4 University of Houston
5 MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University = Université d'État Lomonossov de Moscou [Moscou]
6 UC - University of California
7 ITÜ - Istanbul Technical University
8 UFRO - Universidad de la frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = University of La Frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = Université de La Frontera [Tecumo, Chili]
9 (CR)2 - Center for Climate and Resilience Research [Conception]
10 Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua
11 U of S - University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon, Canada]
12 LEGOS - Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales
13 Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft
14 University of Birmingham [Birmingham]
15 Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology
16 Imperial College London
17 Beykent University [Istanbul]
18 Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg = University of Freiburg
19 University of Bristol [Bristol]
20 Cabot Institute
21 Hellenic Mediterranean University
22 LOTERR - Centre de Recherche en Géographie
23 IRPI - Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection [Perugia]
24 UMR ISPA - Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère
25 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
26 IUAV - Università Iuav di Venezia = Iuav University of Venice
27 FORTH - Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas
28 Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering [Bucaramanga]
29 CSULB - California State University [Long Beach]
30 AWI - Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
31 ERIS - Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology
32 USU - University Stefan cel Mare of Suceava
33 Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
34 HCMC - University of Sciences [Ho Chi Minh City]
35 ENVIRONMENT AGENCY BRISTOL GBR
36 TUC - Technical University of Crete [Chania]
37 SENAMHI - Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú = Peruvian National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology
38 UB - Universitat de Barcelona
39 British Geological Survey [Wallingford]
40 Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science [Uppsala]
41 Uppsala University
42 Penn State - Pennsylvania State University
43 EESC-USP - Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos
44 Deltares [The Netherlands]
45 Trelleborg municipality
46 Skane University Hospital [Lund]
47 Institute of Environmental Science and Geography [Potsdam]
48 HUST - Hanoi University of Science and Technology
49 VNU-HCM - Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City / Đại học Quốc gia TP. Hồ Chí Minh
50 HCMUS - Ho Chi Minh City University of Science
51 Faculty of Chemical Engineering [Vietnam National University, HCM]
52 OE OBSERVATORI DE L'EBRE RAMON LLULL UNIVERSITY ROQUETES ESP
53 UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]
54 OVGU - Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg = Otto-von-Guericke University [Magdeburg]
55 CEGIS - Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
56 IMGW - PIB - Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
57 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
58 THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing]
59 Royal Botanical Gardens Kew [London]
60 KWR Watercycle Research Institute
61 Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
62 University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
63 University of Nebraska–Lincoln
64 NJU - Nanjing University
65 Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management
66 IHE Delft - Institute for Water Education
Heidi Kreibich
  • Fonction : Auteur correspondant
  • PersonId : 1231636

Connectez-vous pour contacter l'auteur
German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
Anne van Loon
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
Kai Schröter
German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig]
Philip J. Ward
  • Fonction : Auteur
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
Maurizio Mazzoleni
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
Nivedita Sairam
German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu
University of Houston
Svetlana Agafonova
Lomonosov Moscow State University = Université d'État Lomonossov de Moscou [Moscou]
Amir Aghakouchak
University of California
Hafzullah Aksoy
Istanbul Technical University
Camila Alvarez-Garreton
Universidad de la frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = University of La Frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = Université de La Frontera [Tecumo, Chili]
Center for Climate and Resilience Research [Conception]
Blanca Aznar
Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua
Laila Balkhi
University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon, Canada]
Marlies H. Barendrecht
  • Fonction : Auteur
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
Sylvain Biancamaria
Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales
Liduin Bos-Burgering
Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft
Chris Bradley
University of Birmingham [Birmingham]
Yus Budiyono
Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology
Wouter Buytaert
Imperial College London
Lucinda Capewell
  • Fonction : Auteur
University of Birmingham [Birmingham]
Hayley Carlson
  • Fonction : Auteur
University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon, Canada]
Yonca Cavus
Istanbul Technical University
Beykent University [Istanbul]
Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg = University of Freiburg
Anaïs Couasnon
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
Gemma Coxon
University of Bristol [Bristol]
Cabot Institute
Ioannis Daliakopoulos
Hellenic Mediterranean University
Marleen C. de Ruiter
  • Fonction : Auteur
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
Claire Delus
Centre de Recherche en Géographie
CV
Mathilde Erfurt
Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg = University of Freiburg
Giuseppe Esposito
Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection [Perugia]
Didier François
Centre de Recherche en Géographie
CV
Frédéric Frappart
Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère
CV
Jim Freer
  • Fonction : Auteur
University of Bristol [Bristol]
Cabot Institute
University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon, Canada]
Natalia Frolova
Lomonosov Moscow State University = Université d'État Lomonossov de Moscou [Moscou]
Animesh K. Gain
  • Fonction : Auteur
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Università Iuav di Venezia = Iuav University of Venice
Manolis Grillakis
Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas
Jordi Oriol Grima
  • Fonction : Auteur
Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua
Diego A. Guzmán
  • Fonction : Auteur
Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering [Bucaramanga]
Laurie S. Huning
  • Fonction : Auteur
University of California
California State University [Long Beach]
Monica Ionita
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology
University Stefan cel Mare of Suceava
Maxim Kharlamov
Lomonosov Moscow State University = Université d'État Lomonossov de Moscou [Moscou]
Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Dao Nguyen Khoi
University of Sciences [Ho Chi Minh City]
Natalie Kieboom
ENVIRONMENT AGENCY BRISTOL GBR
Maria Kireeva
Lomonosov Moscow State University = Université d'État Lomonossov de Moscou [Moscou]
Aristeidis Koutroulis
Technical University of Crete [Chania]
Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú = Peruvian National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology
Hong-Yi Li
University of Houston
María Carmen Llasat
Universitat de Barcelona
David Macdonald
British Geological Survey [Wallingford]
Johanna Mård
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science [Uppsala]
Uppsala University
Hannah Mathew-Richards
  • Fonction : Auteur
ENVIRONMENT AGENCY BRISTOL GBR
Andrew Mckenzie
British Geological Survey [Wallingford]
Alfonso Mejia
Pennsylvania State University
Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos
Marjolein Mens
  • Fonction : Auteur
Deltares [The Netherlands]
Shifteh Mobini
Trelleborg municipality
Skane University Hospital [Lund]
Guilherme Samprogna Mohor
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography [Potsdam]
Viorica Nagavciuc
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
University Stefan cel Mare of Suceava
Thanh Ngo-Duc
Hanoi University of Science and Technology
Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh
Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City / Đại học Quốc gia TP. Hồ Chí Minh
Pham Thi Thao Nhi
Ho Chi Minh City University of Science
Olga Petrucci
Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection [Perugia]
Hong Quan Nguyen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Faculty of Chemical Engineering [Vietnam National University, HCM]
Pere Quintana-Seguí
OE OBSERVATORI DE L'EBRE RAMON LLULL UNIVERSITY ROQUETES ESP
Saman Razavi
University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon, Canada]
Elena Ridolfi
Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]
Jannik Riegel
  • Fonction : Auteur
Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg = Otto-von-Guericke University [Magdeburg]
Md Shibly Sadik
Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
Elisa Savelli
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science [Uppsala]
Uppsala University
Alexey Sazonov
  • Fonction : Auteur
Lomonosov Moscow State University = Université d'État Lomonossov de Moscou [Moscou]
Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Sanjib Sharma
Pennsylvania State University
Johanna Sörensen
Skane University Hospital [Lund]
Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza
Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos
Kerstin Stahl
Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg = University of Freiburg
Max Steinhausen
German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
Michael Stoelzle
Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg = University of Freiburg
Wiwiana Szalińska
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Qiuhong Tang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Fuqiang Tian
Tsinghua University [Beijing]
Tamara Tokarczyk
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Carolina Tovar
Royal Botanical Gardens Kew [London]
Thi van Thu Tran
Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City / Đại học Quốc gia TP. Hồ Chí Minh
Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort
  • Fonction : Auteur
KWR Watercycle Research Institute
Michelle T. H. van Vliet
  • Fonction : Auteur
Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
Sergiy Vorogushyn
German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
Thorsten Wagener
Cabot Institute
University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
University of Bristol [Bristol]
Yueling Wang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Doris E. Wendt
  • Fonction : Auteur
University of Bristol [Bristol]
Elliot Wickham
  • Fonction : Auteur
University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Long Yang
Nanjing University
Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
Center for Climate and Resilience Research [Conception]
Universidad de la frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = University of La Frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = Université de La Frontera [Tecumo, Chili]
Günter Blöschl
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management
Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Institute for Water Education
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science [Uppsala]
Uppsala University

Résumé

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.

Domaines

Hydrologie Milieux et Changements globaux Climatologie Géographie
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https://hal.science/hal-03778186

Soumis le : lundi 10 octobre 2022-14:36:29

Dernière modification le : samedi 14 décembre 2024-03:17:38

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hal-03778186 , version 1 (10-10-2022)

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Heidi Kreibich, Anne van Loon, Kai Schröter, Philip J. Ward, Maurizio Mazzoleni, et al.. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management. Nature, 2022, 608, pp.80-86. ⟨10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5⟩. ⟨hal-03778186⟩

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