Sensitivity of Alpine glaciers to anthropogenic atmospheric forcings: case study of the Argentière glacier
Résumé
This study aims at quantifying the contribution of external climate forcings on the retreat of the Argentière glacier (Mont-Blanc area). Its evolution is simulated over 1850-2014 following retrospective scenarios produced with the IPSL-CM6-LR climate model, excluding and including natural and anthropogenic forcings. These scenarios are statistically adjusted at the local scale, ensuring a preservation of the long-term trends and a physical consistency between precipitation and temperature, to finally force an ice flow model coupled with a surface mass balance scheme. The regional aerosol cooling partly counteracted the greenhouse gases warming, delaying the time of emergence of anthropogenic signals: The anthropogenic influences emerged from the natural variability in 1979 for temperature and in 2008 for the mass of the glacier, whereas its snout position in 2014 remains compatible with natural variability. We found that 66% [20-112%] of the total mass loss in 2014 since 1850 can be attributed to anthropogenic activities.
Domaines
Sciences de l'environnement| Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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