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Article Dans Une Revue Nature Communications Année : 2022

Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink

Michael O’sullivan
Stephen Sitch
Peter Anthoni
  • Fonction : Auteur
Almut Arneth
  • Fonction : Auteur
Vivek Arora
  • Fonction : Auteur
Atul Jain
Etsushi Kato
Daniel Kennedy
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jürgen Knauer
Sebastian Lienert
Danica Lombardozzi
Patrick Mcguire
  • Fonction : Auteur
Joe Melton
Julia Nabel
Julia Pongratz
  • Fonction : Auteur
Benjamin Poulter
Hanqin Tian
  • Fonction : Auteur
Anthony Walker
Wenping Yuan
Xu Yue
Sönke Zaehle

Résumé

Abstract The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO 2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.
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hal-03763263 , version 1 (29-08-2022)

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Michael O’sullivan, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, et al.. Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink. Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (1), pp.4781. ⟨10.1038/s41467-022-32416-8⟩. ⟨hal-03763263⟩
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