Variation and correlation in the timing of breeding of North Atlantic seabirds across multiple scales
Katharine Keogan
(1)
,
Francis Daunt
(2)
,
Sarah Wanless
(2)
,
Richard Phillips
(3)
,
David Alvarez
(4)
,
Tycho Anker-Nilssen
(5)
,
Robert Barrett
(6)
,
Claus Bech
(7)
,
Peter Becker
(8)
,
Per‐arvid Berglund
(9)
,
Sandra Bouwhuis
(8)
,
Zofia Burr
(10)
,
Olivier Chastel
(11)
,
Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard
(5)
,
Sebastien Descamps
(12)
,
Tony Diamond
(13)
,
Kyle Elliott
(14)
,
Kjell‐einar Erikstad
(5)
,
Mike Harris
(15)
,
Jonas Hentati-Sundberg
(16)
,
Martin Heubeck
(17)
,
Stephen Kress
(18)
,
Magdalene Langset
(5)
,
Svein‐håkon Lorentsen
(5)
,
Heather Major
(13)
,
Mark Mallory
(19)
,
Mick Mellor
(20)
,
Will Miles
(20)
,
Børge Moe
(5)
,
Carolyn Mostello
(21)
,
Mark Newell
(15)
,
Ian Nisbet
(22)
,
Tone Kirstin Reiertsen
(5)
,
Jennifer Rock
(23)
,
Paula Shannon
(24)
,
Øystein Varpe
,
Sue Lewis
(5)
,
Albert Phillimore
(1)
1
Institute of Evolutionary Biology [Edinburgh]
2 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
3 BAS - British Antarctic Survey
4 Universidad de Oviedo [Oviedo]
5 NINA - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
6 Tromsø University Museum
7 NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology
8 Institute of Avian Research [Germany]
9 Baltic Seabird Project [Sweden]
10 UNIS - The University Centre in Svalbard
11 CEBC - Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372
12 Norwegian Polar Institute
13 UNB - University of New Brunswick
14 Department of Natural Resource Sciences [Canada]
15 UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
16 Institute of Marine Research [Swedish]
17 Institute of Coastal Science and Management [Aberdeen, UK]
18 National Audubon Society Seabird Institute [ME, USA]
19 Acadia University
20 SOETAG [ St Andrews, UK]
21 Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife
22 I. C. T. Nisbet & Company
23 ECCC - Environment and Climate Change Canada
24 National Audubon Society Seabird Institute [Bremen, USA]
2 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
3 BAS - British Antarctic Survey
4 Universidad de Oviedo [Oviedo]
5 NINA - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
6 Tromsø University Museum
7 NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology
8 Institute of Avian Research [Germany]
9 Baltic Seabird Project [Sweden]
10 UNIS - The University Centre in Svalbard
11 CEBC - Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372
12 Norwegian Polar Institute
13 UNB - University of New Brunswick
14 Department of Natural Resource Sciences [Canada]
15 UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
16 Institute of Marine Research [Swedish]
17 Institute of Coastal Science and Management [Aberdeen, UK]
18 National Audubon Society Seabird Institute [ME, USA]
19 Acadia University
20 SOETAG [ St Andrews, UK]
21 Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife
22 I. C. T. Nisbet & Company
23 ECCC - Environment and Climate Change Canada
24 National Audubon Society Seabird Institute [Bremen, USA]
Résumé
1. Timing of breeding, an important driver of fitness in many populations, is widely studied in the context of global change, yet despite considerable efforts to identify environmental drivers of seabird nesting phenology, for most populations we lack evidence of strong drivers. Here we adopt an alternative approach, examining the degree to which different populations positively covary in their annual phenology to infer whether phenological responses to environmental drivers are likely to be (i) shared across species at a range of spatial scales, (ii) shared across populations of a species, or (iii) idiosyncratic to populations. 2. We combined 51 long‐term datasets on breeding phenology spanning 50 years from nine seabird species across 29 North Atlantic sites and examined the extent to which different populations share early versus late breeding seasons depending on a hierarchy of spatial scales comprising breeding site, small‐scale region, large‐scale region and the whole North Atlantic. 3. In about a third of cases we found laying dates of populations of different species sharing the same breeding site or small‐scale breeding region were positively correlated, which is consistent with the hypothesis that they share phenological responses to the same environmental conditions. In comparison we found no evidence for positive phenological covariation among populations across species aggregated at larger spatial scales. 4. In general we found little evidence for positive phenological covariation between populations of a single species, and in many instances the inter‐year variation specific to a population was substantial, consistent with each population responding idiosyncratically to local environmental conditions. Black‐legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) was the exception, with populations exhibiting positive covariation in laying dates that decayed with the distance between breeding sites, suggesting that populations may be responding to a similar driver. 5. Our approach sheds light on the potential factors that may drive phenology in our study species, thus furthering our understanding of the scales at which different seabirds interact with interannual variation in their environment. We also identify additional systems and phenological questions to which our inferential approach could be applied.