Sustainability or societal collapse, dynamics and bifurcations of the handy model
Résumé
The overexploitation of natural resources by our industrial society questions its longterm sustainability. Recently, a simple nature-society interrelation model, called the HANDY model, has been proposed by Montesharrei et al (2014) to address this concern with a special emphasis on the role of the stratification of the society. In this paper we analyse the dynamics of this model and we explore the influence of two parameters: the nature depletion rate and the inequality factor. We characterize the asymptotic states of the system through a bifurcation analysis and we derive several quantitative predictions. We show that some collapses are irreversible and, depending on the wealth production factor, bistability regimes can be obtained. In particular, a sustainable equilibrium can coexist with cycles of prosperity and collapse. We discuss the possible policies to prevent undesirable fates.
Domaines
Systèmes dynamiques [math.DS]Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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