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Article Dans Une Revue International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems Année : 2021

Evaluating forecasting methods in the context of local energy communities

Résumé

To push the boundaries of self-sufficiency, local energy communities may rely on load demand forecasts to schedule energy usage ahead of time. In the perspective of selecting a forecasting method, this work explores goodness of a forecast from two sides: its quality, and its value. Traditionally, forecasting methods are ranked based on quality metrics such as the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). This work additionally considers the value of a forecast, quantifying practical outcomes for local energy communities such as self-sufficiency, cost of electricity, and fairness. Our contribution is twofold: first in creating a broader framework to evaluate forecasting performance with regards to energy communities, and second, in highlighting the relationship between quality and value metrics for energy communities ranging from 2 to 95 participants. When selecting a forecasting method, our results show that simply relying on quality metrics is misleading. This paper illustrates with a study case, the clear difference in considering value metrics rather than quality metrics, and the potential impact on the design of a coordination platform for local energy communities.
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Dates et versions

hal-03636300 , version 1 (09-04-2022)

Identifiants

Citer

Jonathan Coignard, Maxime Janvier, Vincent Debusschere, Gilles Moreau, Stéphanie Chollet, et al.. Evaluating forecasting methods in the context of local energy communities. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2021, 131, pp.106956. ⟨10.1016/j.ijepes.2021.106956⟩. ⟨hal-03636300⟩
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