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Stochastic Chaos and Predictability in Laboratory Earthquakes

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Abstract

Laboratory earthquakes exhibit characteristics of a low-dimensional random attractor with a dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes. A model of stochastic differential equations based on rate-and state-dependent friction explains the laboratory observations. We study the transition from stable sliding to stick-slip events and find that aperiodic behavior can be explained by small perturbations (< 1/oo) in the stress state. Friction's nonlinear nature amplifies small scale perturbations, reducing the predictability of the otherwise periodic macroscopic dynamics.
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Dates and versions

hal-03632703 , version 1 (06-04-2022)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : hal-03632703 , version 1

Cite

Adriano Gualandi, Davide Faranda, Chris Marone, Massimo Cocco, Gianmarco Mengaldo. Stochastic Chaos and Predictability in Laboratory Earthquakes. 2022. ⟨hal-03632703v1⟩
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