Assets and Risk: A Neglected Dimension of Economic Voting
Abstract
Economic voting studies have been dominated by the classic reward–
punishment paradigm, in which voters vote for the incumbent under good
economic performance, but against und
er bad. This paradigm works well when
the economic issue is a valence issue, such as prosperity. However, it leaves out
positional economic voting, in which the
voter’s place in the economic structure
influences policy preference, and thus
party preference. More precisely, we
suggest that the better the economic loca
tion of voters in terms of assets, high-
risk assets in particular, the more they wi
ll vote right, because the right promises
a better return on their investments. We demonstrate this effect in French
presidential election data, from t
hree national surveys – 1988, 1995 and 2002.
This assets effect well exceeds other economic effects tested, and does so under
strong statistical controls.