<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<TEI xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:hal="http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/" xmlns:gml="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/" xmlns:gmlce="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/ce" version="1.1" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0 http://api.archives-ouvertes.fr/documents/aofr-sword.xsd">
  <teiHeader>
    <fileDesc>
      <titleStmt>
        <title>HAL TEI export of hal-03520689</title>
      </titleStmt>
      <publicationStmt>
        <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
        <availability status="restricted">
          <licence target="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC0 1.0 - Universal</licence>
        </availability>
        <date when="2026-05-16T20:13:35+02:00"/>
      </publicationStmt>
      <sourceDesc>
        <p part="N">HAL API Platform</p>
      </sourceDesc>
    </fileDesc>
  </teiHeader>
  <text>
    <body>
      <listBibl>
        <biblFull>
          <titleStmt>
            <title xml:lang="en">Strategies for hydrologic ensemble generation and calibration: On the merits of using model-based predictors</title>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Anne-Laure</forename>
                <surname>Tiberi-Wadier</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">1039349-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-422961"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Nicole</forename>
                <surname>Goutal</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">619447-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-528389"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Sophie</forename>
                <surname>Ricci</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">698867-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-27660"/>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-1058131"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Philippe</forename>
                <surname>Sergent</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">499733-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-422961"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Maxime</forename>
                <surname>Taillardat</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">4e1da498342ee72e7b57d43c5ac98afd</email>
              <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">786339</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1265250-786339</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2039-4476</idno>
              <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/224687867</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-454014"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">François</forename>
                <surname>Bouttier</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">33eaa89b2eb816437d8458540dfe2268</email>
              <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="string">francois-bouttier</idno>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">774641</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">930038-774641</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6148-4510</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-490594"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Céline</forename>
                <surname>Monteil</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">50dc223c0cc092bf3bab2207fd158d43</email>
              <email type="domain">edf.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">765808</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">621445-765808</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5695-8910</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-528414"/>
            </author>
            <editor role="depositor">
              <persName>
                <forename>François</forename>
                <surname>Bouttier</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">33eaa89b2eb816437d8458540dfe2268</email>
              <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
            </editor>
          </titleStmt>
          <editionStmt>
            <edition n="v1" type="current">
              <date type="whenSubmitted">2022-01-11 10:58:32</date>
              <date type="whenModified">2025-12-18 16:20:03</date>
              <date type="whenReleased">2022-01-11 11:11:01</date>
              <date type="whenProduced">2021</date>
              <date type="whenEndEmbargoed">2022-01-11</date>
              <ref type="file" target="https://hal.science/hal-03520689v1/document">
                <date notBefore="2022-01-11"/>
              </ref>
              <ref type="file" subtype="author" n="1" target="https://hal.science/hal-03520689v1/file/21JHYDRO-Tiberi-Strategies-HAL.pdf" id="file-3520689-3082813">
                <date notBefore="2022-01-11"/>
              </ref>
              <ref type="externalLink" target="https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03520689/file/21JHYDRO-Tiberi-Strategies-HAL.pdf"/>
            </edition>
            <respStmt>
              <resp>contributor</resp>
              <name key="812229">
                <persName>
                  <forename>François</forename>
                  <surname>Bouttier</surname>
                </persName>
                <email type="md5">33eaa89b2eb816437d8458540dfe2268</email>
                <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
              </name>
            </respStmt>
          </editionStmt>
          <publicationStmt>
            <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
            <idno type="halId">hal-03520689</idno>
            <idno type="halUri">https://hal.science/hal-03520689</idno>
            <idno type="halBibtex">tiberiwadier:hal-03520689</idno>
            <idno type="halRefHtml">&lt;i&gt;Journal of Hydrology&lt;/i&gt;, 2021, 599, pp.126233. &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126233"&gt;&amp;#x27E8;10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126233&amp;#x27E9;&lt;/a&gt;</idno>
            <idno type="halRef">Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 599, pp.126233. &amp;#x27E8;10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126233&amp;#x27E9;</idno>
            <availability status="restricted">
              <licence target="https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/">HAL Authorization<ref corresp="#file-3520689-3082813"/></licence>
            </availability>
          </publicationStmt>
          <seriesStmt>
            <idno type="stamp" n="INSU">INSU - Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="METEO">Météo France</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRS">CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="OMP">Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="GIP-BE">GIP Bretagne Environnement</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CEREMA">Centre d'études et d'expertise sur les risques, l'environnement, la mobilité et l'aménagement</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="EDF">EDF</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRM">Centre national de recherches météorologiques</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CECI">Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRM-GMME" corresp="CNRM">Groupe de Météorologie de Moyenne Echelle</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRM-GMAP" corresp="CNRM">Groupe de Modélisation et d'Assimilation pour la Prévision</idno>
          </seriesStmt>
          <notesStmt>
            <note type="audience" n="2">International</note>
            <note type="popular" n="0">No</note>
            <note type="peer" n="1">Yes</note>
          </notesStmt>
          <sourceDesc>
            <biblStruct>
              <analytic>
                <title xml:lang="en">Strategies for hydrologic ensemble generation and calibration: On the merits of using model-based predictors</title>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Anne-Laure</forename>
                    <surname>Tiberi-Wadier</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">1039349-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-422961"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Nicole</forename>
                    <surname>Goutal</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">619447-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-528389"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Sophie</forename>
                    <surname>Ricci</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">698867-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-27660"/>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-1058131"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Philippe</forename>
                    <surname>Sergent</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">499733-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-422961"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Maxime</forename>
                    <surname>Taillardat</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">4e1da498342ee72e7b57d43c5ac98afd</email>
                  <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">786339</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1265250-786339</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2039-4476</idno>
                  <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/224687867</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-454014"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">François</forename>
                    <surname>Bouttier</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">33eaa89b2eb816437d8458540dfe2268</email>
                  <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="string">francois-bouttier</idno>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">774641</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">930038-774641</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6148-4510</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-490594"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Céline</forename>
                    <surname>Monteil</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">50dc223c0cc092bf3bab2207fd158d43</email>
                  <email type="domain">edf.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">765808</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">621445-765808</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5695-8910</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-528414"/>
                </author>
              </analytic>
              <monogr>
                <idno type="halJournalId" status="VALID">15595</idno>
                <idno type="issn">0022-1694</idno>
                <idno type="eissn">1879-2707</idno>
                <title level="j">Journal of Hydrology</title>
                <imprint>
                  <publisher>Elsevier</publisher>
                  <biblScope unit="volume">599</biblScope>
                  <biblScope unit="pp">126233</biblScope>
                  <date type="datePub">2021</date>
                  <date type="dateEpub">2021-03-24</date>
                </imprint>
              </monogr>
              <idno type="doi">10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126233</idno>
            </biblStruct>
          </sourceDesc>
          <profileDesc>
            <langUsage>
              <language ident="en">English</language>
            </langUsage>
            <textClass>
              <keywords scheme="author">
                <term xml:lang="en">Ensemble Prediction System</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Global Sensitivity Analysis</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Quantile Regression Forest</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">MORDOR-TS</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Odet catchment</term>
              </keywords>
              <classCode scheme="classification">2010 MSC: 00-01, 99-00</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdu.stu.me">Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdu.stu.hy">Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halOldTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTreeTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
            </textClass>
            <abstract xml:lang="en">
              <p>This paper investigates the hydrometeorological chain with an ensemble approach. The objective is the generation of Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts (HEF) on the Odet catchment (France, Brittany), using the Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) method usually applied for the ensemble calibration of meteorological forecats. First, a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) in the distributed MORDOR-TS model is carried out taking into account uncertainty in forecasted rain with AromeEPS-RR1 and in model parameters. GSA highlights the role and importance of the different hydrologic model parameters during rain events and allows to only take into account the most influent parameters for the generation of an Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast (HEF). Three strategies for the generation of HEF are then compared. First (i), a raw ensemble is built with a model-based only approach using the deterministic forecast rainfall Expert-RR3 and perturbed model parameters, without further statistical calibration. Then, the QRF calibration method is used to generate two ensembles of quantiles: (ii) the observation-based approach uses only predictors that are independent from hydrology, whereas (iii) the combined model and observation approach combines these predictors with statistics of the raw hydrologic ensemble (mean, standard deviation). This latter approach was shown to outperfom the previous ones, enhancing the importance of the choice of the predictors in the QRF method. In the prospect of using the hydrologic ensemble as input for hydraulic simulation, the Ensemble Copula Coupling method (ECC) and a trajectory smoothing procedure is then applied on (iii). This step slightly deteriorates the reliability of hourly streamflows, yet Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and forecast skills on the cumulated or maximum streamflows are improved.</p>
            </abstract>
          </profileDesc>
        </biblFull>
      </listBibl>
    </body>
    <back>
      <listOrg type="structures">
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-422961" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/05k0nvr25</idno>
          <orgName>Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">Cerema</orgName>
          <date type="start">2017-10-16</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Siège : Cités des Mobilités - 25 avenue François Mitterrand - CS 92803 -  69674 BRON Cedex</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.cerema.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="regrouplaboratory" xml:id="struct-528389" status="VALID">
          <orgName>EDF R&amp;D</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">EDF R&amp;D</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.edf.fr/groupe-edf/qui-sommes-nous/activites/recherche-et-developpement</ref>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-302313" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-27660" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">143868195</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000406407549</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">199622827J</idno>
          <orgName>Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CERFACS</orgName>
          <date type="start">1987-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis 31057 TOULOUSE CEDEX 1</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.cerfacs.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-1058131" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">249749270</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">201622384R</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/05t8ct211</idno>
          <orgName>Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes [Toulouse]</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CECI</orgName>
          <date type="start">2016-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Toulouse</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://cerfacs.fr/umr-5318-climat-environnement-couplages-et-incertitudes-ceci/</ref>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-27660" type="direct"/>
            <relation name="UMR 5318" active="#struct-300045" type="direct"/>
            <relation name="UMR5318" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-454014" status="VALID">
          <orgName>Météo-France Direction Interrégionale Sud-Est</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">DIRSE</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Météo-France Direction Interrégionale Sud-Est2 boulevard du château double13098 AIX-EN-PROVENCE CEDEX 02</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-1079823" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-490594" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">033821275</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000102168454</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">201320566C</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/004rej139</idno>
          <orgName>Centre national de recherches météorologiques</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CNRM</orgName>
          <date type="start">2013-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis31057 TOULOUSE</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation name="UMR3589" active="#struct-300045" type="direct"/>
            <relation name="UMR3589" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-443875" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-1079823" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-528414" status="VALID">
          <orgName>Laboratoire National d’Hydraulique et Environnement</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">EDF R&amp;D LNHE</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-528389" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-302313" type="indirect"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-302313" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">026436965</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000122985443</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/03wb8xz10</idno>
          <idno type="Wikidata">Q274591</idno>
          <orgName>EDF – Électricité de France</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">EDF [E.D.F.]</orgName>
          <date type="start">1946-04-08</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>22-30 – 22 avenue de Wagram – 75008 Paris – France</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.edf.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300045" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">029349265</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000 0001 2154 1736</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/04kdfz702</idno>
          <idno type="Wikidata">Q3152437</idno>
          <orgName>Institut national des sciences de l'Univers</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">INSU - CNRS</orgName>
          <date type="start">2007-04-19</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>INSU-CNRS3 rue Michel-Ange, 75794 Paris Cedex 16</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.insu.cnrs.fr</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/02feahw73</idno>
          <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
          <date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-1079823" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/0233st365</idno>
          <orgName>Météo-France</orgName>
          <date type="start">1993-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>73 avenue de Paris94165 Saint-Mande Cedex</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.meteofrance.com/accueil</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-443875" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/017tgbk05</idno>
          <orgName>Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">Comue de Toulouse</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>41 Allée Jules Guesde, 31000 Toulouse</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.univ-toulouse.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
      </listOrg>
    </back>
  </text>
</TEI>