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Article Dans Une Revue European Economic Review Année : 2022

Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents

Résumé

We compare disagreement in expectations and the frequency of forecast revisions among five categories of agents: households, firms, professional forecasters, policymakers and participants to laboratory experiments. We provide evidence of disagreement among all categories of agents. There is however a strong heterogeneity across categories: while policymakers and professional forecasters exhibit low disagreement, firms and households show strong disagreement. This translates into a heterogeneous frequency of forecast revision across categories of agents, with policymakers revising more frequently their forecasts than firms and professional forecasters. Households last revise less frequently. We are also able to explore the external validity of experimental expectations.
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Dates et versions

hal-03468918 , version 1 (07-12-2021)

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Camille Cornand, Paul Hubert. Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents. European Economic Review, 2022, 146, pp.104175. ⟨10.2139/ssrn.3928619⟩. ⟨hal-03468918⟩
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