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Article Dans Une Revue Geophysical Research Letters Année : 2021

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Chris D Jones
Jonathan E Hickman
  • Fonction : Auteur
Steven T Rumbold
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jeremy Walton
Robin D Lamboll
Ragnhild B Skeie
Stephanie Fiedler
Piers M Forster
Joeri Rogelj
Manabu Abe
Michael Botzet
  • Fonction : Auteur
Katherine Calvin
Christophe Cassou
Jason N.S. Cole
Paolo Davini
Makoto Deushi
Martin Dix
John C Fyfe
  • Fonction : Auteur
Nathan P Gillett
Tatiana Ilyina
Michio Kawamiya
Maxwell Kelley
  • Fonction : Auteur
Slava Kharin
Tsuyoshi Koshiro
Hongmei Li
Chloe Mackallah
Wolfgang A Müller
Pierre Nabat
Twan van Noije
Paul Nolan
Rumi Ohgaito
Dirk Olivié
Naga Oshima
Jose Parodi
Thomas J Reerink
Lili Ren
Anastasia Romanou
  • Fonction : Auteur
Roland Séférian
Yongming Tang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Claudia Timmreck
Jerry Tjiputra
Etienne Tourigny
Kostas Tsigaridis
Hailong Wang
Mingxuan Wu
Klaus Wyser
Shuting Yang
Yang Yang
Tilo Ziehn
Jason N S Cole

Résumé

Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO 2 , other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate. Plain Language Summary Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020. This caused a temporary reduction in emissions of CO2 and other pollutants. We compare results from twelve Earth system models to see if the emissions JONES ET AL.
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Dates et versions

hal-03448669 , version 1 (25-11-2021)

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Chris D Jones, Jonathan E Hickman, Steven T Rumbold, Jeremy Walton, Robin D Lamboll, et al.. The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP. Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48 (8), ⟨10.1029/2020gl091883⟩. ⟨hal-03448669⟩
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