Exogenous and Endogenous Price Jumps Belong to Different Dynamical Classes - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment Année : 2022

Exogenous and Endogenous Price Jumps Belong to Different Dynamical Classes

Riccardo Marcaccioli
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Michael Benzaquen

Résumé

Synchronising a database of stock specific news with 5 years worth of order book data on 300 stocks, we show that abnormal price movements following news releases (exogenous) exhibit markedly different dynamical features from those arising spontaneously (endogenous). On average, large volatility fluctuations induced by exogenous events occur abruptly and are followed by a decaying power-law relaxation, while endogenous price jumps are characterized by progressively accelerating growth of volatility, also followed by a power-law relaxation, but slower than for exogenous jumps. Remarkably, our results are reminiscent of what is observed in different contexts, namely Amazon book sales and YouTube views. Finally, we show that fitting power-laws to {\it individual} volatility profiles allows one to classify large events into endogenous and exogenous dynamical classes, without relying on the news feed.
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Dates et versions

hal-03378876 , version 1 (14-10-2021)

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Riccardo Marcaccioli, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Michael Benzaquen. Exogenous and Endogenous Price Jumps Belong to Different Dynamical Classes. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2022, pp.023403. ⟨hal-03378876⟩
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