Article Dans Une Revue Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene Année : 2020

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: A critical review of changes in the tropospheric ozone burden and budget from 1850 to 2100

1 CAM - University of Cambridge [Cambridge, UK]
2 NCAS - National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leicester]
3 CALTECH - California Institute of Technology
4 USF - University of South Florida [Tampa]
5 CIRES - Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
6 CSL - NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory
7 Lancaster Environment Centre
8 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
9 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - Bush Estate
10 The James Hutton Institute
11 Rdscientific [Newbury]
12 JMA - Japan Meteorological Agency
13 Unicatt - Università cattolica del Sacro Cuore [Brescia]
14 CSIRO Climate Science Centre
15 University of Wollongong [Australia]
16 LAERO - Laboratoire d'aérologie
17 NCAS - National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Manchester]
18 University of Montana
19 DLR - Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling]
20 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
21 Princeton University
22 GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
23 NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington]
24 ARIES - Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences
25 GML - ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory [Boulder]
26 ECCC - Environment and Climate Change Canada
27 University of Canterbury [Christchurch]
28 IQFR - Instituto de Química Física Rocasolano = Instituto de Química Física Blas Cabrera = Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano
29 JNU - Jawaharlal Nehru University
30 IST - Institute of Space Technology [Islamabad]
31 University of Bristol [Bristol]
32 ACOML - Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory
33 KIT - Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
34 FMC - Ford Motor Company
35 POLYU - The Hong Kong Polytechnic University [Hong Kong]
36 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
L Hu
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Our understanding of the processes that control the burden and budget of tropospheric ozone has changed dramatically over the last 60 years. Models are the key tools used to understand these changes, and these underscore that there are many processes important in controlling the tropospheric ozone budget. In this critical review, we assess our evolving understanding of these processes, both physical and chemical. We review model simulations from the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Chemistry Climate Modelling Initiative to assess the changes in the tropospheric ozone burden and its budget from 1850 to 2010. Analysis of these data indicates that there has been significant growth in the ozone burden from 1850 to 2000 (approximately 43 + 9%) but smaller growth between 1960 and 2000 (approximately 16 + 10%) and that the models simulate burdens of ozone well within recent satellite estimates.The Chemistry Climate Modelling Initiative model ozone budgets indicate that the net chemical production of ozone in the troposphere plateaued in the 1990s and has not changed since then inspite of increases in the burden. There has been a shift in net ozone production in the troposphere being greatest in the northern mid and high latitudes to the northern tropics, driven by the regional evolution of precursor emissions. An analysis of the evolution of tropospheric ozone through the 21st century, as simulated by Climate Model ntercomparison Project Phase 5 models, reveals a large source of uncertainty associated with models themselves (i.e., in the way that they simulate the chemical and physical processes that control tropospheric ozone). This structural uncertainty is greatest in the near term (two to three decades), but emissions scenarios dominate uncertainty in the longer term (2050–2100) evolution of tropospheric ozone. This intrinsic model uncertainty prevents robust predictions of near-term changes in the tropospheric ozone burden, and we review how progress can be made to reduce this limitation.

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hal-03362712 , version 1 (02-10-2021)

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A T Archibald, J L Neu, Y F Elshorbany, O R Cooper, P J Young, et al.. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: A critical review of changes in the tropospheric ozone burden and budget from 1850 to 2100. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2020, 8 (1), p 1- 53. ⟨10.1525/elementa.2020.034⟩. ⟨hal-03362712⟩
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