Projected changes in the atmospheric dynamics of climate extremes in France
Résumé
Extremes of temperature, precipitation and wind have caused damages in France, 1 in the agriculture, transportation and health sectors. Those types of events are largely driven 2 by the atmospheric circulation. The dependence on the global climate change is not always 3 clear, and is the subject of extreme event attribution (EEA). This study reports an analysis of the 4 atmospheric circulation over France for seven events that struck France in the 21st century, in 5 various seasons. We focus on the atmospheric dynamics that leads to those extremes and examine 6 how the probability of atmospheric patterns and their predictability responds to climate change. 7 We analyse how the features of those events evolve in simulations following an SSP585 scenario 8 for future climate. Using a range of CMIP6 simulations helps determining uncertainties linked to 9 climate models.
Domaines
Océan, Atmosphère| Origine | Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte |
|---|
