Self-Organized Critical Markets: Implied Volatility and Avalanche Intensity.
Résumé
Assuming self-organized criticality to characterize capital markets, this paper seeks to explain why equity implied volatility is a relevant proxy for avalanche intensity. Historical data analysis of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) shows that implied volatility spikes are distributed following a power law, making financial stress similar to earthquakes as anticipated long ago by Bak.
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