Modeling permafrost occurrence, glacier-bed topography and possible future lakes for assessing changing hazard conditions in cold mountain regions
Résumé
The rapid transformation of glacial into periglacial mountain landscapes under conditions of continued global warming can cause new and locally severe changes in hazard and risk conditions. A special focus must be on systematically increasing risks due to far-reaching flood waves or debris flows caused by rock/ice avalanches into new lakes at the foot of steep slopes with decreasing stability due to permafrost degradation and/or glacial de-buttressing. Modeling permafrost occurrence and glacier-bed topography provides important information for anticipating critical future situations.
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