An empirical approach to financial crisis indicators based on random matrices - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance Année : 2018

An empirical approach to financial crisis indicators based on random matrices

Résumé

The aim of this work is to build a class of financial crisis indicators based on the spectral properties of the dynamics of market data. After choosing an appropriate size for a rolling window, the historical market data inside this rolling window are seen every trading day as a random matrix from which a correlation matrix is obtained. Our goal is to study the correlations between the assets that constitute this market and look for reproducible patterns that are indicative of an impending financial crisis. A weighting of the assets in the market is then introduced and is proportional to the daily traded volumes. This manipulation is realized in order to give more importance to the most liquid assets. Our financial crisis indicators are based on the spectral radius of this weighted correlation matrix. The idea behind this type of financial crisis indicators is that large eigenvalues are a sign of dynamic instability. The out-of-sample predictive power of the financial crisis indicators in this framework is then demonstrated, in particular by using them as decision-making tools in a protective put strategy.

Dates et versions

hal-03265045 , version 1 (18-06-2021)

Identifiants

Citer

Raphaël Douady, Antoine Kornprobst. An empirical approach to financial crisis indicators based on random matrices. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 2018, 21 (03), pp.1850022. ⟨10.1142/S021902491850022X⟩. ⟨hal-03265045⟩
23 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More