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Journal Articles Nature Year : 2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Tamsin L. Edwards , Sophie M.J. Nowicki , Ben Marzeion , Regine Hock , Heiko Goelzer , Hélène Seroussi , Nicolas Jourdain , Donald A. Slater , Fiona E. Turner , Christopher J. Smith , Christine M. Mckenna , Erika G. Simon , Ayako Abe-Ouchi , Jonathan M. Gregory , Eric Y. Larour , William H. Lipscomb , Antony J. Payne , Andrew P. Shepherd , Cécile Agosta (1, 2) , Patrick M. Alexander , Torsten Albrecht , Brian M. Anderson , Xylar S. Asay-Davis , Andy Aschwanden , Alice M. Barthel , Andrew K. Bliss , Reinhard Calov , Christopher Chambers , Nicolas Champollion , Youngmin Choi , Richard I. Cullather , Joshua K. Cuzzone , Christophe Dumas (1, 3) , Denis Felikson , Xavier Fettweis , Koji Fujita , Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi , Rupert M.M. Gladstone , Nicholas R. Golledge , Ralf Greve , Tore Hattermann , Matthew J. Hoffman , Angelika Humbert , Matthias Huss , P. Huybrechts , Walter Willem (walter) Immerzeel , Thomas Kleiner , Philip D.A. Kraaijenbrink , Sébastien Le Clec’h , Victoria Lee , Gunter R. Leguy , Christopher M. Little , Daniel P. Lowry , Jan Hendrik Malles , Daniel F. Martin , Fabien Maussion , Mathieu Morlighem , James F. O’neill , Isabel J. Nias , Frank Pattyn , Tyler Pelle , Stephen F. Price , Aurélien Quiquet (1) , Valentina Radić , Ronja Reese , David Robert Rounce , Martin Rückamp , Akiko Sakai , Courtney Shafer , Nicole Jeanne Schlegel , Sarah R. Shannon , Robin S. Smith , Fiamma Straneo , Sainan Sun , Lev Tarasov , Luke D. Trusel , Jonas van Breedam , Roderick S.W. van de Wal , M. R. van den Broeke , Ricarda Winkelmann , Harry Zekollari , Chen Zhao , Tong Zhang , Thomas Zwinger
Tamsin L. Edwards
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Sophie M.J. Nowicki
  • Function : Author
Ben Marzeion
Regine Hock
Heiko Goelzer
Hélène Seroussi
Nicolas Jourdain
Donald A. Slater
  • Function : Author
Fiona E. Turner
  • Function : Author
Christopher J. Smith
Christine M. Mckenna
Erika G. Simon
  • Function : Author
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Jonathan M. Gregory
Eric Y. Larour
  • Function : Author
William H. Lipscomb
  • Function : Author
Antony J. Payne
Andrew P. Shepherd
  • Function : Author
Patrick M. Alexander
  • Function : Author
Torsten Albrecht
  • Function : Author
Brian M. Anderson
  • Function : Author
Xylar S. Asay-Davis
  • Function : Author
Andy Aschwanden
Alice M. Barthel
  • Function : Author
Andrew K. Bliss
  • Function : Author
Reinhard Calov
  • Function : Author
Christopher Chambers
  • Function : Author
Nicolas Champollion
  • Function : Author
Youngmin Choi
  • Function : Author
Richard I. Cullather
  • Function : Author
Joshua K. Cuzzone
  • Function : Author
Denis Felikson
  • Function : Author
Xavier Fettweis
Koji Fujita
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
Rupert M.M. Gladstone
  • Function : Author
Nicholas R. Golledge
Ralf Greve
Tore Hattermann
Matthew J. Hoffman
  • Function : Author
Angelika Humbert
  • Function : Author
Matthias Huss
P. Huybrechts
Walter Willem (walter) Immerzeel
Thomas Kleiner
Philip D.A. Kraaijenbrink
Sébastien Le Clec’h
  • Function : Author
Victoria Lee
  • Function : Author
Gunter R. Leguy
  • Function : Author
Christopher M. Little
Daniel P. Lowry
  • Function : Author
Jan Hendrik Malles
  • Function : Author
Daniel F. Martin
  • Function : Author
Fabien Maussion
Mathieu Morlighem
James F. O’neill
  • Function : Author
Isabel J. Nias
  • Function : Author
Frank Pattyn
Tyler Pelle
  • Function : Author
Stephen F. Price
  • Function : Author
Valentina Radić
  • Function : Author
Ronja Reese
  • Function : Author
David Robert Rounce
  • Function : Author
Martin Rückamp
Akiko Sakai
  • Function : Author
Courtney Shafer
  • Function : Author
Nicole Jeanne Schlegel
  • Function : Author
Sarah R. Shannon
  • Function : Author
Robin S. Smith
Fiamma Straneo
  • Function : Author
Sainan Sun
  • Function : Author
Lev Tarasov
  • Function : Author
Luke D. Trusel
  • Function : Author
Jonas van Breedam
  • Function : Author
Roderick S.W. van de Wal
  • Function : Author
M. R. van den Broeke
Ricarda Winkelmann
  • Function : Author
Harry Zekollari
Chen Zhao
Tong Zhang
  • Function : Author
Thomas Zwinger

Abstract

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2–8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.
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Dates and versions

hal-03230877 , version 1 (16-09-2021)

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Tamsin L. Edwards, Sophie M.J. Nowicki, Ben Marzeion, Regine Hock, Heiko Goelzer, et al.. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. Nature, 2021, 593 (7857), pp.74-82. ⟨10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y⟩. ⟨hal-03230877⟩
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