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Article Dans Une Revue The Open Atmospheric Science Journal Année : 2008

Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim?

James Hansen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Makiko Sato
  • Fonction : Auteur
Pushker Kharecha
  • Fonction : Auteur
David Beerling
  • Fonction : Auteur
Robert Berner
  • Fonction : Auteur
Mark Pagani
  • Fonction : Auteur
Maureen Raymo
  • Fonction : Auteur
Dana Royer
  • Fonction : Auteur
James Zachos
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Paleoclimate d ata show that climate sensitivity is ~3°C for doubled CO 2 , including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, i s ~6°C for doubled CO 2 fo r th e ran ge o f cl imate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO 2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 m illion yea rs a go, the pl anet bei ng ne arly i ce-free unt il CO 2 f ell to 450 ± 100 ppm ; ba rring pr ompt pol icy changes, th at c ritical l evel w ill b e p assed, in th e opposite di rection, w ithin de cades. If hum anity w ishes t o pr eserve a planet similar to that on w hich civilization developed and to which life on Ea rth is adapted, p aleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO 2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO 2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO 2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO 2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO 2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.
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hal-03192851 , version 1 (09-04-2021)

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James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, David Beerling, Robert Berner, et al.. Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim?. The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2008, 2 (1), pp.217-231. ⟨10.2174/1874282300802010217⟩. ⟨hal-03192851⟩
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