TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECAST AMID COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team - Archive ouverte HAL
Journal Articles Annals of Tourism Research Year : 2021

TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECAST AMID COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

Richard T.R. Qiu
  • Function : Author
Doris Chenguang Wu
  • Function : Author
Vincent Dropsy
  • Function : Author
Stephen Pratt
  • Function : Author
Yasuo Ohe
  • Function : Author

Abstract

It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking-based algorithms are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shape recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shape, and a severe one with an L-shape. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%-70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.

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Dates and versions

hal-03138092 , version 1 (23-11-2023)

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Richard T.R. Qiu, Doris Chenguang Wu, Vincent Dropsy, Sylvain Petit, Stephen Pratt, et al.. TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECAST AMID COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team. Annals of Tourism Research, 2021, pp.103155. ⟨10.1016/j.annals.2021.103155⟩. ⟨hal-03138092⟩
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