Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Year : 2020

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

Debora Arlt
Pierre Bize
Patricia Brekke
Lyanne Brouwer
Andrew Cockburn
  • Function : Author
Steeve Côté
F. Stephen Dobson
Simon Evans
Marco Festa-Bianchet
Marlène Gamelon
Sandra Hamel
Johann Hegelbach
  • Function : Author
Kurt Jerstad
  • Function : Author
Bart Kempenaers
Loeske Kruuk
  • Function : Author
Jouko Kumpula
  • Function : Author
Thomas Kvalnes
Andrew Mcadam
  • Function : Author
S. Eryn Mcfarlane
Michael Morrissey
  • Function : Author
Tomas Pärt
Josephine Pemberton
  • Function : Author
Anna Qvarnström
Ole Wiggo Røstad
  • Function : Author
Julia Schroeder
  • Function : Author
Juan Carlos Senar
Ben Sheldon
  • Function : Author
Martijn van de Pol
Marcel Visser
Nathaniel Wheelwright
Jarle Tufto
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
article.pdf (334.42 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origin Files produced by the author(s)

Dates and versions

hal-03129124 , version 1 (02-02-2021)

Identifiers

Cite

Pierre de Villemereuil, Anne Charmantier, Debora Arlt, Pierre Bize, Patricia Brekke, et al.. Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020, 117 (50), pp.31969-31978. ⟨10.1073/pnas.2009003117⟩. ⟨hal-03129124⟩
78 View
181 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Mastodon Facebook X LinkedIn More