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Journal Articles Nature Year : 2020

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

Andrew Shepherd , Erik Ivins , Eric Rignot , Ben Smith , Michiel van Den Broeke , Isabella Velicogna , Pippa Whitehouse , Kate Briggs , Ian Joughin , Gerhard Krinner , Sophie Nowicki , Tony Payne , Ted Scambos , Nicole Schlegel , Geruo A , Cécile Agosta , Andreas Ahlstrøm , Greg Babonis , Valentina R. Barletta , Anders A. Bjørk , Blazquez Alejandro (1) , Jennifer Bonin , William Colgan , Beata Csatho , Richard Cullather , Marcus E. Engdahl , Denis Felikson , Xavier Fettweis , Rene Forsberg , Anna E. Hogg , Hubert Gallee , Alex Gardner , Lin Gilbert , Noel Gourmelen , Andreas Groh , Brian Gunter , Edward Hanna , Christopher Harig , Veit Helm , Alexander Horvath , Martin Horwath , Shfaqat Khan , Kristian K. Kjeldsen , Hannes Konrad , Peter L. Langen , Benoit Lecavalier , Bryant Loomis , Scott Luthcke , Malcolm Mcmillan , Daniele Melini , Sebastian Mernild , Yara Mohajerani , Philip Moore , Ruth Mottram , Jeremie Mouginot (2) , Gorka Moyano , Alan Muir , Thomas Nagler , Grace Nield , Johan Nilsson , Brice Noël , Ines Otosaka , Mark E. Pattle , W. Richard Peltier , Nadège Pie , Roelof Rietbroek , Helmut Rott , Louise Sandberg Sørensen , Ingo Sasgen , Himanshu Save , Bernd Scheuchl , Ernst Schrama , Ludwig Schröder , Ki-Weon Seo , Sebastian B. Simonsen , Thomas Slater , Giorgio Spada , Tyler Sutterley , Matthieu Talpe , Lev Tarasov , Willem Jan van De Berg , Wouter van Der Wal , Melchior Van Wessem , Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma , David Wiese , David Wilton , Thomas Wagner , Bert Wouters , Jan Wuite
Andrew Shepherd
  • Function : Author
Erik Ivins
  • Function : Author
Eric Rignot
Ben Smith
  • Function : Author
Michiel van Den Broeke
  • Function : Author
Isabella Velicogna
Pippa Whitehouse
  • Function : Author
Kate Briggs
  • Function : Author
Ian Joughin
  • Function : Author
Gerhard Krinner
Sophie Nowicki
Tony Payne
  • Function : Author
Ted Scambos
  • Function : Author
Nicole Schlegel
  • Function : Author
Geruo A
  • Function : Author
Cécile Agosta
Andreas Ahlstrøm
  • Function : Author
Greg Babonis
  • Function : Author
Valentina R. Barletta
  • Function : Author
Anders A. Bjørk
  • Function : Author
Jennifer Bonin
  • Function : Author
William Colgan
Beata Csatho
  • Function : Author
Richard Cullather
  • Function : Author
Marcus E. Engdahl
  • Function : Author
Denis Felikson
  • Function : Author
Xavier Fettweis
Rene Forsberg
  • Function : Author
Anna E. Hogg
  • Function : Author
Hubert Gallee
  • Function : Author
Alex Gardner
  • Function : Author
Lin Gilbert
  • Function : Author
Noel Gourmelen
  • Function : Author
Andreas Groh
  • Function : Author
Brian Gunter
  • Function : Author
Edward Hanna
  • Function : Author
Christopher Harig
  • Function : Author
Veit Helm
  • Function : Author
Alexander Horvath
  • Function : Author
Martin Horwath
  • Function : Author
Shfaqat Khan
Kristian K. Kjeldsen
  • Function : Author
Hannes Konrad
  • Function : Author
Peter L. Langen
  • Function : Author
Benoit Lecavalier
  • Function : Author
Bryant Loomis
  • Function : Author
Scott Luthcke
  • Function : Author
Malcolm Mcmillan
  • Function : Author
Daniele Melini
  • Function : Author
Sebastian Mernild
  • Function : Author
Yara Mohajerani
  • Function : Author
Philip Moore
  • Function : Author
Ruth Mottram
  • Function : Author
Gorka Moyano
  • Function : Author
Alan Muir
  • Function : Author
Thomas Nagler
  • Function : Author
Grace Nield
  • Function : Author
Johan Nilsson
  • Function : Author
Brice Noël
Ines Otosaka
  • Function : Author
Mark E. Pattle
  • Function : Author
W. Richard Peltier
  • Function : Author
Nadège Pie
  • Function : Author
Roelof Rietbroek
  • Function : Author
Helmut Rott
  • Function : Author
Louise Sandberg Sørensen
  • Function : Author
Ingo Sasgen
  • Function : Author
Himanshu Save
  • Function : Author
Bernd Scheuchl
Ernst Schrama
  • Function : Author
Ludwig Schröder
  • Function : Author
Ki-Weon Seo
  • Function : Author
Sebastian B. Simonsen
  • Function : Author
Thomas Slater
  • Function : Author
Giorgio Spada
  • Function : Author
Tyler Sutterley
  • Function : Author
Matthieu Talpe
  • Function : Author
Lev Tarasov
  • Function : Author
Willem Jan van De Berg
  • Function : Author
Wouter van Der Wal
  • Function : Author
Melchior Van Wessem
  • Function : Author
Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma
  • Function : Author
David Wiese
  • Function : Author
David Wilton
  • Function : Author
Thomas Wagner
  • Function : Author
Bert Wouters
  • Function : Author
Jan Wuite
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Abstract

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades1,2, and it is expected to continue to be so3. Although increases in glacier flow4,5,6 and surface melting7,8,9 have been driven by oceanic10,11,12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet’s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 ± 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 ± 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 ± 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 ± 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 ± 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.

Dates and versions

hal-03025884 , version 1 (26-11-2020)

Identifiers

Cite

Andrew Shepherd, Erik Ivins, Eric Rignot, Ben Smith, Michiel van Den Broeke, et al.. Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018. Nature, 2020, 579 (7798), pp.233-239. ⟨10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2⟩. ⟨hal-03025884⟩
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