Article Dans Une Revue Annals of Forest Science Année : 2019

Predicting growth and habitat responses of Ginkgo biloba L. to climate change

Ying Guo
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yue Lu
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yousry A. El-Kassaby
  • Fonction : Auteur
Lei Feng
  • Fonction : Auteur
Guibing Wang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tongli Wang
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

AbstractKey messageWe developed a climatic response function using 20-year tree height observed from 45Ginkgo bilobaplantations in China and used it to predict the growth and habitat responses to anticipated climate change. We projected northward and upward shifts in the species habitat and productive areas, but a dramatic contraction of the species distribution is unlikely to occur at least during the present century.ContextGinkgo biloba is the only living species in the division Ginkgophyta. The species exists in small natural populations in southeastern China but is cultivated across China and the world. The species’ future under climate change is of concern.AimsThis study was initiated to model the species’ growth response to climate change and to predict its range of suitable habitat under future climates.MethodsUsing height data from 45 20 years old plantations growing under a wide range of climatic conditions across China, we developed univariate and bivariate climatic response functions to identify the climate requirements of the species.ResultsAccording to the amount of variance explained (> 70%) and the high level of agreement (> 99%) with independent species occurrence coordinates, the developed climate response function was highly accurate and credible. Projections for future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario indicated that the areas of potential suitable habitat would increase (25–67 million hectares). It would also be associated with northward (0.21–0.62° in latitude) and elevational (24–75 m) shifts.ConclusionGlobal climate change is projected to increase the area of potential suitable habitats for Ginkgo and shift its spatial distributions northward and upward.

Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
springer.pdf (3.86 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Publication financée par une institution
Licence
Loading...

Dates et versions

hal-02976462 , version 1 (23-10-2020)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Ying Guo, Yue Lu, Yousry A. El-Kassaby, Lei Feng, Guibing Wang, et al.. Predicting growth and habitat responses of Ginkgo biloba L. to climate change. Annals of Forest Science, 2019, 76 (4), pp.101. ⟨10.1007/s13595-019-0885-0⟩. ⟨hal-02976462⟩
67 Consultations
140 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

  • More