The global methane budget 2000–2017
Marielle Saunois
(1, 2)
,
Ann Stavert
(3)
,
Ben Poulter
(4)
,
Philippe Bousquet
(1, 2)
,
Josep Canadell
(3)
,
Robert Jackson
(5)
,
Peter Raymond
(6)
,
Edward Dlugokencky
(7)
,
Sander Houweling
(8)
,
Prabir Patra
(9)
,
Philippe Ciais
(1, 10)
,
Vivek Arora
(11)
,
David Bastviken
(12)
,
Peter Bergamaschi
(13)
,
Donald Blake
(14)
,
Gordon Brailsford
(15)
,
Lori Bruhwiler
(7)
,
Kimberly Carlson
(16)
,
Mark Carrol
(4)
,
Simona Castaldi
(17)
,
Naveen Chandra
(18)
,
Cyril Crevoisier
(19)
,
Patrick Crill
(20)
,
Kristofer Covey
(21)
,
Charles Curry
(22)
,
Giuseppe Etiope
(23)
,
Christian Frankenberg
(24)
,
Nicola Gedney
(25)
,
Michaela Hegglin
(26)
,
Lena Höglund-Isaksson
(27)
,
Gustaf Hugelius
(20)
,
Misa Ishizawa
(28)
,
Akihiko Ito
(28)
,
Greet Janssens-Maenhout
(13)
,
Katherine Jensen
(16)
,
Fortunat Joos
(29)
,
Thomas Kleinen
(30)
,
Paul Krummel
(31)
,
Ray Langenfelds
(31)
,
Goulven Laruelle
(32)
,
Licheng Liu
(33)
,
Toshinobu Machida
(28)
,
Shamil Maksyutov
(28)
,
Kyle Mcdonald
(16)
,
Joe Mcnorton
(34)
,
Paul Miller
(35)
,
Joe Melton
(36)
,
Isamu Morino
(28)
,
Jurek Müller
(29)
,
Fabiola Murguia-Flores
(37)
,
Vaishali Naik
(38)
,
Yosuke Niwa
(28)
,
Sergio Noce
(39)
,
Simon O'Doherty
(40)
,
Robert Parker
(41)
,
Changhui Peng
(42)
,
Shushi Peng
(43)
,
Glen Peters
(44)
,
Catherine Prigent
(45)
,
Ronald Prinn
(46)
,
Michel Ramonet
(1, 47)
,
Pierre Régnier
(48)
,
William Riley
(49)
,
Judith Rosentreter
(50)
,
Arjo Segers
(51)
,
Isobel Simpson
(14)
,
Hao Shi
(52)
,
Steven Smith
(53)
,
L. Paul Steele
(54)
,
Brett Thornton
(55)
,
Hanqin Tian
(52)
,
Yasunori Tohjima
(28)
,
Francesco Tubiello
(56)
,
Aki Tsuruta
(57)
,
Nicolas Viovy
(1, 58)
,
Apostolos Voulgarakis
(59)
,
Thomas Weber
(60)
,
Michiel van Weele
(61)
,
Guido van Der Werf
(62)
,
Ray Weiss
(63)
,
Doug Worthy
(64)
,
Debra Wunch
(65)
,
Yi Yin
(1)
,
Yukio Yoshida
(28)
,
Wenxin Zhang
(66)
,
Zhen Zhang
(67)
,
Yuanhong Zhao
(1)
,
Bo Zheng
(1)
,
Qing Zhu
(49)
,
Qiuan Zhu
(68)
,
Qianlai Zhuang
(33)
1
LSCE -
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
2 SATINV - Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires
3 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale]
4 GSFC - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
5 ESS - Department of Earth System Science [Stanford]
6 YSE - Yale School of the Environment
7 NOAA/University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder
8 SRON - SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
9 RIGC - Research Institute for Global Change
10 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
11 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
12 Department of Thematic Studies – Technology and Social Change
13 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
14 Department of Chemistry [Irvine]
15 NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington]
16 NYU - New York University [New York]
17 Università degli studi della Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli" = University of the Study of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli
18 JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
19 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
20 Bolin Centre for Climate Research
21 Skidmore College [Saratoga Springs]
22 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
23 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma
24 Caltech Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences
25 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
26 UOR - University of Reading
27 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
28 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
29 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
30 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
31 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
32 ULB - Département de Physique [Bruxelles]
33 Purdue Climate Change Research Center
34 ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
35 Skane University Hospital [Lund]
36 Climate Research Division [Toronto]
37 School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
38 GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
39 CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
40 School of Chemistry [Bristol]
41 NCEO - NERC National Centre for Earth Observation
42 UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal
43 Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences
44 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
45 Observatoire de Paris
46 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
47 ICOS-RAMCES - ICOS-RAMCES
48 ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles
49 LBNL - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley]
50 Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry Research
51 TNO Climate, Air and Sustainability [Utrecht]
52 International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University
53 Joint Global Change Research Institute
54 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
55 Department of Geological Sciences and Bolin Centre for Climate Research
56 FAO Forestry
57 FMI - Finnish Meteorological Institute
58 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
59 Department of Chemistry [Imperial College London]
60 University of Rochester [USA]
61 KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
62 VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
63 SIO - UC San Diego - Scripps Institution of Oceanography
64 ECCC - Environment and Climate Change Canada
65 University of Toronto
66 Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund]
67 Department of Geographical Sciences [College Park]
68 Hohai University
2 SATINV - Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires
3 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale]
4 GSFC - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
5 ESS - Department of Earth System Science [Stanford]
6 YSE - Yale School of the Environment
7 NOAA/University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder
8 SRON - SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
9 RIGC - Research Institute for Global Change
10 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
11 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
12 Department of Thematic Studies – Technology and Social Change
13 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
14 Department of Chemistry [Irvine]
15 NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington]
16 NYU - New York University [New York]
17 Università degli studi della Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli" = University of the Study of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli
18 JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
19 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
20 Bolin Centre for Climate Research
21 Skidmore College [Saratoga Springs]
22 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
23 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma
24 Caltech Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences
25 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
26 UOR - University of Reading
27 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
28 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
29 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
30 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
31 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
32 ULB - Département de Physique [Bruxelles]
33 Purdue Climate Change Research Center
34 ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
35 Skane University Hospital [Lund]
36 Climate Research Division [Toronto]
37 School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
38 GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
39 CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
40 School of Chemistry [Bristol]
41 NCEO - NERC National Centre for Earth Observation
42 UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal
43 Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences
44 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
45 Observatoire de Paris
46 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
47 ICOS-RAMCES - ICOS-RAMCES
48 ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles
49 LBNL - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley]
50 Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry Research
51 TNO Climate, Air and Sustainability [Utrecht]
52 International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University
53 Joint Global Change Research Institute
54 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
55 Department of Geological Sciences and Bolin Centre for Climate Research
56 FAO Forestry
57 FMI - Finnish Meteorological Institute
58 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
59 Department of Chemistry [Imperial College London]
60 University of Rochester [USA]
61 KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
62 VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
63 SIO - UC San Diego - Scripps Institution of Oceanography
64 ECCC - Environment and Climate Change Canada
65 University of Toronto
66 Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund]
67 Department of Geographical Sciences [College Park]
68 Hohai University
Ann Stavert
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-4857-2134
Philippe Bousquet
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Josep Canadell
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Robert Jackson
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Peter Raymond
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Sander Houweling
- Fonction : Auteur
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Prabir Patra
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 769314
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5700-9389
Philippe Ciais
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 756308
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- IdRef : 092241700
Naveen Chandra
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-5357-7757
Christian Frankenberg
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-0546-5857
Akihiko Ito
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 759293
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5265-0791
Greet Janssens-Maenhout
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-9335-0709
Fortunat Joos
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-9483-6030
Paul Krummel
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-4884-3678
Goulven Laruelle
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- ORCID : 0000-0003-2869-4713
Isamu Morino
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- ORCID : 0000-0003-2720-1569
Shushi Peng
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- ORCID : 0000-0001-5098-726X
Glen Peters
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- PersonId : 776412
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7889-8568
- IdRef : 138519307
Catherine Prigent
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 741265
- IdHAL : catherine-prigent
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0266-1403
- IdRef : 03410299X
Michel Ramonet
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- IdHAL : michel-ramonet
- ORCID : 0000-0003-1157-1186
- IdRef : 199680809
Pierre Régnier
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- IdHAL : pierre-regnier
Hanqin Tian
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- PersonId : 760801
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1806-4091
Nicolas Viovy
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- IdRef : 159358914
Ray Weiss
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Yi Yin
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- ORCID : 0000-0003-4750-4997
Zhen Zhang
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- IdRef : 204542138
Yuanhong Zhao
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-5134-1257
Bo Zheng
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- ORCID : 0000-0001-8344-3445
Résumé
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).
For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters.
Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.
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