Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Année : 2006

Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans

Résumé

Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning

Dates et versions

hal-02663642 , version 1 (31-05-2020)

Identifiants

Citer

Arnaud Le Menach, Elisabeta Vergu, Rebecca F. Grais, David L. Smith, Antoine Flahault. Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2006, 273 (1600), pp.2467-2475. ⟨10.1098/rspb.2006.3609⟩. ⟨hal-02663642⟩
26 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More