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Poster De Conférence Année : 2019

Quantifying Uncertainties for earthquakes' Magnitude and Depth

Résumé

Magnitude estimates of earthquakes from the intensity macroseismic field are marred by uncertainties. Two main types of uncertainties can be identified: one linked to the quality of the intensity data and the epistemic uncertainties of the intensity prediction equations (IPE) used to estimate magnitude from the macroseismic field. Quality of the intensity data depends on how detailed the testimonies of the earthquake are and on their reliability. In some macroseismic databases, a quality factor is associated to each intensity data point. IPE are calibrated on earthquakes for which macroseismic data and instrumental data, i.e. magnitude and depth, are available. The coefficients of IPEs depend then on the quality of the instrumental data, the quality of the intensity data and the calibration dataset. We present here the QUake-MD methodology, acronym for Quantifying Uncertainties for earthquakes' Magnitude and Depth. QUake-MD quantifies uncertainties in magnitude/depth estimates for earthquakes known only by their macroseismic fields by taking into account the quality of intensity data and the IPE epistemic uncertainties. Intensity data quality is used to weight the inversion process of intensity data in the application of the IPEs and to associate uncertainties to the inverted depth and magnitude. IPE epistemic uncertainties are taken into account by the use of several IPEs. Uncertainties associated to the inverted depth and magnitude combined to the use of different IPEs can be used to build a probability density function of the plausible depth, magnitude and epicentral intensity associated to the considered earthquake. To illustrate the strength of the methodology we use the intensity data collected by the BCSF (Bureau Central Sismologique Français) following recent earthquakes and compare macroseismic and instrumental estimates of Mw, depth and associated uncertainties.
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hal-02635627 , version 1 (27-05-2020)

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  • HAL Id : hal-02635627 , version 1

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Ludmila Provost, Oona Scotti. Quantifying Uncertainties for earthquakes' Magnitude and Depth. 7th International Colloquium on Historical Earthquakes & Paleoseismology Studies, ICHEPS, Nov 2019, BARCELONE, Spain. 2019. ⟨hal-02635627⟩
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