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              <p>Ce projet a pour objectif de réaliser une évaluation des impacts futurs des changements climatiques sur les débits de la partie française de la Meuse, en utilisant les dernières simulations climatiques disponibles produites dans le cadre du 5e rapport du GIEC. Une approche multi-modèles (exploitant quatre modèles hydrologiques et un ensemble de paramètres) sera mise en place et utilisée conjointement avec un ensemble de projections issues de modèle climatiques différents, désagrégées statistiquement par deux méthodes développées en France. Un travail spécifique sera mené sur les méthodes de descente d'échelle afin de prendre en compte les incertitudes relatives à ce maillon de la chaine de modélisation, ce qui est rarement abordé dans les études de ce type. Les impacts seront quantifiés sur la base de divers indicateurs relatifs aux régimes, aux crues et aux étiages. Une attention particulière sera donnée à la quantification des incertitudes associées à la chaine de modélisation ainsi que sur les possibilités d'utilisation des indicateurs météorologiques de sécheresse pour caractériser les situations d'étiage. Enfin, nous nous efforcerons de valoriser les résultats du projet via des fiches synthétiques fournies aux gestionnaires ainsi que des communiqués de presse. Le présent rapport a pour objet de présenter l'état d'avancement du projet à mi-parcours, en particulier en ce qui concerne la naturalisation des débits et les méthodes de descente d'échelle. Par ailleurs, nous présentons les stations retenues dans le projet, les quatre modèles hydrologiques qui seront utilisés ainsi qu'une première réflexion menée sur la caractérisation des étiages en contexte non jaugé.</p>
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