Ecological niche models of human land use in Late Pleistocene Southeast Asia suggest both abiotic and biotic variables can create bariiers to human dispersal
Résumé
Ecological niche models (ENM) of species distributions and dispersal patterns are well established in the biological sciences. However, their use in paleoanthropological reconstructions of hominin niches is relatively recent, and has focused on out of Africa dispersals and human land use in Europe and Central Asia (Glantz et al., 2016). These studies have suggested that the most important abiotic variables for predicting human site use are moderate temperature, rainfall, and access to fresh-water. However, recent work in the biological sciences has demonstrated that models utilizing only abiotic climate factors may not provide a comprehensive picture of how a species utilizes its habitat. These studies have called for the inclusion of biotic (species-inter-action) data to construct more comprehensive models (Gavin et al., 2014; Maguire et al., 2015). Here, we used ENM to combine traditional climatic predictors of human land use with fossil estimates of human-carnivore competition (competition index) from five Late Pleistocene sites in Laos and Vietnam. Then, we constructed ENMs in the popular program MaxEnt to investigate the impact of both climate and species interactions on likely human dispersal patterns in Late Pleistocene mainland Southeast Asia. We validate ENM land-use predictions using known human occupation sites (n=20) to determine how inclusion of fossil species-interaction data may change predictions of human land use. In largely temperate Southeast Asia, models including temperature and rainfall fit well but are less informative predictors of land use (AUC = 0.94, Favorable niche space: 0.46-0.92%) compared to other abiotic (terrain, water access, vegetation) and biotic variables.